267
FXUS63 KDVN 091119
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE (20-40%) OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN
30-50 MPH GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-380 CORRIDOR AND
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS BENTON COUNTY LAST EVENING, HAS SINCE
DISSIPATED TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES AIDING IN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL IA AND SOUTHWEST WI AT THE MOMENT. FINALLY, A STRONG LLJ
IS SUPPORTING A LARGE AREA OF STORMS JUST WEST OF THE KC METRO
OVER NORTHEAST KS THIS MORNING.
A COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH SCATTERED OFF-AND-ON
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION, RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION AND ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SCATTERED STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. TRYING TO PIN DOWN WHERE AND WHEN THESE MAY OCCUR IS
DIFFICULT IN THIS PATTERN AND GIVEN THE WIDE ARRAY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS DECIDED TO GO WITH AREA- WIDE 20-40% POPS. HOWEVER,
NOT ALL AREAS SHOULD EXPECT RAIN TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A LARGELY UN-CAPPED ENVIRONMENT BUT A RATHER MARGINAL CAPE/SHEAR
OVERLAP FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL LOCALLY. THUNDER MAY ALSO BE HARD
TO COME BY WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE 00Z REFS 1-HR
THUNDER PROGS (40%) MOSTLY CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVER
CENTRAL IL. NONETHELESS, IF A FEW STORMS DO OCCUR BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST CELLS. ANY ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE TODAY, WITH CLOUD BREAKS
AND PRECIP DURATION POSSIBLY THROWING A WRENCH IN THE FORECAST.
HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS, TO DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
FRIDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND BRING MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE
TIMING, STRENGTH, AND LOCATION OF THIS WAVE IS STILL QUITE
UNCERTAIN. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
THIS WEEKEND...BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO
BRING LARGELY DRY AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LATEST NBM LOADED
SOME LINGERING SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL IL ON SATURDAY
THAT IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE 00Z NAM OUTLIER SOLUTION. I EXPECT
THESE TO DECREASE FURTHER WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD ALSO BE MORE TOLERABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.
NEXT WEEK...LATEST DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS STILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND IF IT GETS TO 599DAM AS SUGGESTED BY THE 00Z GFS, IT COULD
BECOME A TOP 10 SOUNDING FOR 500MB HEIGHTS AT OAX OR ABR!
LOCALLY, THIS WILL BRING A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF DRY
CONDITIONS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND BUILDING HEAT.
FACTORING IN THE MATURING CROPS, HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO
LOW 100S APPEAR VERY PLAUSIBLE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MORE HEAT
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEK. APPARENT T PROBABILITIES OF 95 DEGREES OR HIGHER OFF THE
LREF (100 MEMBER ENSEMBLE OF THE GEFS/ENS/GEPS) ARE IN THE
40-60% RANGE TUESDAY-THURSDAY. TAKING A LOOK AT THE WPC
EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK PRODUCT, MODERATE IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THOSE WHO
ARE THE MOST SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT. THE LATEST CPC 8-14 DAY
HAZARD OUTLOOK ALSO MAINTAINS A MODERATE (40-60%) RISK OF
EXTREME HEAT FOR MOST OF THE CWA JULY 16TH-18TH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR STRATUS WILL WORK SOUTH TOWARDS DBQ BY 15Z THIS
MORNING, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON IF THE 1500-2500 FT
CIGS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THAT FAR SOUTH. OPTED TO CAP CIGS AT
3000 FT AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY. THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH BEST CHANCES AFTER
18Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON TIMING AND COVERAGE. THUS, OPTED FOR
PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME FOR TERMINALS WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SEEING STORMS. OTHERWISE, WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
THE AREA TODAY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN. ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL BE FOUND, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEING SEEN SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDRY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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