098
FXUS63 KDVN 092347
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED-TO-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (20-40% COVERAGE) ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LIGHTNING, AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONG
STORMS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY (50-80%) SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A MIXTURE OF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, A WEAK COLD FRONT, AND
SUBTLE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS KEEPING THE CLOUDS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AS NOTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED-TO-
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT (20-40% COVERAGE) IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ENABLE MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IN THE FORM OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, BUT
WITH ONLY 10-20 KNOTS OF 0-6-KM EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY (95+%) BE SUB-SEVERE. HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO
BE IN THE 80S AREAWIDE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY. BY THE EVENING, A WEAK 20-KNOT LLJ TO THE SOUTH
OF A CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY IS FORECASTED SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
STORMS (20-40% COVERAGE) AND CLOUD COVER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR THROUGH 3AM BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
ON FRIDAY, LINGERING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CWA SHOULD KEEP
POPS AROUND 20-40% IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTH OF I-80 AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN TO OUR NORTHWEST. CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO STICK AROUND AS A DIURNAL CUMULUS DECK DEVELOPS IN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AS CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CREEPS IN. LUCKILY, THE CLOUD
COVER AND WEAK CAA WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP HIGHS IN THE 80S,
SEASONABLE FOR JULY. HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN DRY OUT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHWEST SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN,
ADVECTING IN SOME DRIER AIR. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES FOR AREAS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34, LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO MID- TO-UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY (90% CHANCE) AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER US AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WISCONSIN DRIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA. LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE
AND WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPRESS CLOUD COVER,
SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK. CURRENT LREF GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S (50-80% CHANCE) WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S (50-70% CHANCE). THIS IS CORROBORATED BY THE CPC
6-10-DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HAVING A 40-60% OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR CERTAIN IF HEAT
HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED, IT IS GROWING MORE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-80.
IN MORE POSITIVE NEWS, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER US IS NOT EXPECTED
TO LAST LONG AS A RETROGRADING, CUT-OFF LOW HEIGHTS CENTER ALONG THE
GULF COAST COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE LATE NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY
SPLITTING IT IN TWO AS NOTED BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES. THIS COULD
ENABLE TROUGHING AGAIN OVER THE MIDWEST, INTRODUCING POPS AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
A LOWER-CONFIDENCE TAF FORECAST SET, MAINLY FOR THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH
SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
FIRST, WE'RE CURRENTLY MONITORING A THUNDERSTORM JUST SOUTH OF
DBQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS OF TAF ISSUANCE, WHICH APPEARS LIKELY
TO JUST MISS THE TERMINAL TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALONG WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A STORM NOW EAST OF BRL. LATEST HIGH-RES MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR
CID AND MLI. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW WITH
LITTLE MODEL AGREEMENT, SO WILL USE PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW.
SECOND ITEM OF FOCUS WILL BE ON MVFR FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT AS
LIGHT WINDS AND A STOUT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION DEVELOPS. SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO IFR IN SOME
LOCATIONS, BUT LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF THIS ARE NEAR 20 TO
30 PERCENT, WITH MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS CLOSER TO 50
PERCENT, SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS MVFR FOR NOW. HOWEVER, IFR
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DELAUNE
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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