592
FXUS63 KDVN 101738
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN/ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS THE MAIN CONCERN, ALONG WITH
LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY (50-80%) SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
SUBTLE IMPULSE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER E IOWA EARLY
THIS MORNING. ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ATOP A WEAK MID
LEVEL BOUNDARY AND THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AXIS IS FOSTERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POCKETS OF
CONVECTION NEAR TO NORTH OF HWY 30 EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE SE IOWA/NE MISSOURI
BORDER. VERY WEAK FLOW (10 KT OR LESS OF WIND THROUGH 700 MB
ON KDVN VWP) IS LENDING TO VERY SLOW MOVEMENT AND AREAS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH ESTIMATES OF OVER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF JONES COUNTY, IOWA WHERE
CONVECTION HAS BEEN REPETITIVE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME CONVECTION PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK (SCATTERED
COVERAGE NORTH OF I-80 TO HWY 20, AND ISOLATED FURTHER SOUTH)
BEFORE THIS WAVE PASSES. WOULDN'T RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY LINGERING BEYOND DEEPER THROUGH THE MORNING,
BUT WHAT WE'RE MONITORING IS THE MCS OVER KANSAS AS IT SHIFTS
EASTWARD. SEEING MORE CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR A
CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED VORT MAX OR MCV EMANATING FROM THIS MCS
AND PROPAGATING IN THE VICINITY OF S IOWA AND N MISSOURI LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NBM HOURLY POPS APPEAR TO BE TOO
LOW AND SO WE HAVE BUMPED UP POPS MORE IN LINE WITH CONSSHORT
GUIDANCE TO GIVE MORE SCATTERED (30-50%) COVERAGE SOUTH OF I-80
BY MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME HIGHER COVERAGE (60%+) IN SOME SOUTHERN AREAS. TAPERED
POPS TO 15-25% NORTH OF I-80 WITH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND
AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
VERY WEAK SURFACE TO 700 MB FLOW OWING TO SLOW CELL MOVEMENT
AMIDST A MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH PWATS INCREASING TO AROUND 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES (HIGHEST SOUTH). COULD EASILY SEE 1-2 INCH
RAIN AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR, AND WITH ANY PERSISTENCE OR
REPETITIVE CONVECTION THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ISOLATED
POCKETS OF 3+ INCHES AS SUGGESTED IN THE 00Z HREF 24 HR QPF
ENSEMBLE LOCALIZED PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN (LPMM). GIVEN THE
WEAK LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW, THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
VERY LOW, BUT STILL NON-ZERO. GUSTY WINDS (30-40+ MPH) WOULD BE
THE MAIN CONCERN ESPECIALLY WITH ANY PRECIP LOADING, BUT WILL
ALSO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY AUGMENTATION OF THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE MCV WHICH IF OCCURS COULD INCREASE
THE SEVERE THREAT SOME FOR AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT (WIND)
SOUTH. IN ADDITION, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ALONG ANY BOUNDARIES WHERE
SURFACE VORTICITY CAN BE MAXIMIZED WITHIN SUFFICIENT 0-3KM MLCAPE.
CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHILE FOCUSING PRIMARILY SOUTH, BUT
WE MAY NOT SEE A QUIET RADAR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT OR POSSIBLY
EARLY SATURDAY AM AFTER THE WAVE HAS PASSED.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT,
SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
POTENTIALLY STRENGTHENING TO INCREDIBLY OVER 600 DAM!
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME HISTORIC HEAT FOR THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BE WARMING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT THE MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS
(925 MB TEMPS +25 TO +35C) WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED WELL TO
OUR WEST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WE SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR HIGHS BY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN (595+ DAM 500 MB HEIGHTS) AND MORE
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 90S APPEAR LIKELY. HOWEVER, AT THE
SURFACE WE ARE LIKELY TO HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN/NEAR THE AREA
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT HUMIDITY LEVELS
MORE IN CHECK COMPARED TO OUR PREVIOUS BOUT OF HEAT IN LATE
JUNE/EARLY JULY. NONETHELESS, IT WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS WELL IN THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEARING
100 IN A FEW SPOTS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNS
FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES VIA EITHER 1) THE
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RESTRENGTHENING OUT
WEST DUE TO PASSAGE OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE(S), AND/OR 2)
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CUTOFF AND UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WHILE
RETROGRADING WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE PERIOD.
CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW A LINGERING DECK OF LAKE-BOUNDARY STRATUS
OVER DBQ, WHICH WILL KEEP BKN MVFR CIGS THROUGH 10/19Z. A NW-SE
ORIENTED BAND OF SLOW-MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MLI AS WELL. WEAK FORCING AND
LIMITED SUPPRESSION MEANS THAT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 11/03Z, WITH MVFR
TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER/STORM PASSES OVER THE
TERMINAL. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STORMS HAS LIMITED ANY
PROB30/TEMPO MENTION TO MLI/BRL. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL IS AT BRL DUE TO A DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. A
TEMPO GROUP IS IN EFFECT FROM 10/21Z TO 11/01Z. PAST 11/06Z,
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR,
BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION AS SHOWER AND STORM PLACEMENT WILL
INFLUENCE LATER CONDITIONS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
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