624
FXUS63 KDVN 101931
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
231 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS, ALONG
WITH LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE
LIKELY (50-80%) SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A MESSY ENVIRONMENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS A SERIES OF
BOUNDARIES AND AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT ALLOWS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS FOCUSED ALONG A
BROAD LAKE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM ANAMOSA IA TO MCNABB IL, WHICH
HAS LARGELY WEAKENED AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. ANY REMAINING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNING'S STORMS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. WEAK FORCING AND SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KTS WILL
HELP LIMIT LONGEVITY, FAVORING INSTEAD PULSE-TYPE STORMS. WHILE
STORMS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED, HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED LIGHTNING, AND A
FUNNEL CLOUD OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
OF GREATER NOTE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS AN MCV, CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST MISSOURI. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL BE LIKELY AS THIS
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES ARE
WEAK, ENVIRONMENTAL MODIFICATION WITH THE MCV COULD STRENGTHEN SHEAR
ON THE LOCAL SCALE, LEADING TO A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT. THIS
THREAT, IF IT MATERIALIZES, WOULD BE LIMITED TO THE VERY SOUTHERN
TIER OF THE CWA ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS,
CLOSEST TO THE MCV. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS QUITE LOCALIZED,
A MORE WIDESPREAD RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING EXISTS SOUTH
OF I-80, ESPECIALLY FROM THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR SOUTH. THIS IS DUE
TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND FORECAST STORM MOTIONS OF ONLY 10-20 KTS,
COMBINED WITH HIGH PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES. AREAS THAT SEE
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OR ARE UNDER NEARLY STATIONARY
STORMS WILL BE ESPECIALLY AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
LATE TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE
EAST. LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER LAKE
BOUNDARY TO REACH THE AREA BY EARLY MORNING SATURDAY, WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER THROUGH MIDDAY. OTHERWISE, SATURDAY
WILL BE A PLEASANT AND SEASONABLE SUMMER DAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. IN FACT, SOME OF
THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS POTENTIALLY
STRENGTHENING TO INCREDIBLY OVER 600 DAM! THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN SOME HISTORIC HEAT FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BE WARMING
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE MUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS (925 MB TEMPS +25 TO +35C) WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED WELL TO OUR WEST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WE SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BY SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE HOTTEST DAYS LOOK TO BE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WHEN THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN (595+ DAM 500 MB HEIGHTS) AND MORE WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 90S APPEAR LIKELY. HOWEVER, AT THE SURFACE WE ARE
LIKELY TO HAVE HIGH PRESSURE IN/NEAR THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP
THE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT HUMIDITY LEVELS MORE IN CHECK
COMPARED TO OUR PREVIOUS BOUT OF HEAT IN LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY.
NONETHELESS, IT WILL BE HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX
READINGS WELL IN THE 90S TO POSSIBLY NEARING 100 IN A FEW SPOTS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNS
FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES VIA EITHER 1) THE
FLATTENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND RESTRENGTHENING OUT
WEST DUE TO PASSAGE OF CANADIAN SHORTWAVE(S), AND/OR 2)
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CUTOFF AND UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE WHILE
RETROGRADING WESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED OVER THE PERIOD.
CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOW A LINGERING DECK OF LAKE-BOUNDARY STRATUS
OVER DBQ, WHICH WILL KEEP BKN MVFR CIGS THROUGH 10/19Z. A NW-SE
ORIENTED BAND OF SLOW-MOVING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO MLI AS WELL. WEAK FORCING AND
LIMITED SUPPRESSION MEANS THAT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 11/03Z, WITH MVFR
TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER/STORM PASSES OVER THE
TERMINAL. LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF STORMS HAS LIMITED ANY
PROB30/TEMPO MENTION TO MLI/BRL. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL IS AT BRL DUE TO A DISTURBANCE PASSING SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MODIFY THE ENVIRONMENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. A
TEMPO GROUP IS IN EFFECT FROM 10/21Z TO 11/01Z. PAST 11/06Z,
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR CIGS AND VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR,
BUT HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION AS SHOWER AND STORM PLACEMENT WILL
INFLUENCE LATER CONDITIONS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH/MCCLURE
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
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