308
FXUS63 KDVN 111837
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
137 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID JULY ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING OF HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 90S BY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
LIMITED HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 100 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
- THE FORECAST IS LARGE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN STEADILY TODAY, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND
DECREASING HUMIDITY. THUS, WE'RE ARE SEEING MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND NO RAIN ON THE RADAR TODAY. DEW POINT VALUES ARE
NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
CERTAINLY A MORE PLEASANT DAY THAN RECENT HUMID TIMES IS FOUND AREA-
WIDE.
WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TONIGHT, LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY, AS WE BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH BOTH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THIS REGIME WILL FEATURE A
GRADUALLY WARMING AIR MASS, LIGHT WINDS, AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WHILE THERE IS NO GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION, WE ARE AT
PEAK SEASON FOR CROP ET, SO DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR
SUNDAY, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT, UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS RISING TO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS SHORT TERM WEATHER WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED, AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BUILDING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. A CLOSED LOW IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND A CLOSED 500 MB 600 DM CONTOUR IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FORM A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WOULD KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
MODIFY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S AND LOW TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER
70S AFTER WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/LOW 70S WILL LIMIT HEAT
INDICES TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE OTHER MODELS AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN RETROGRADE THE REX BLOCK TO THE WEST. THIS IS BRINGING
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE RETROGRADE OF THE REX
BLOCK BRINGS THE STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE AREA ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA AND PRODUCE LIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ANDS STORMS. THE
RETROGRADING REX BLOCK SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE FAVORED BY MODELS AND
THE NBM AND THINK THAT THIS IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE
TENDENCIES FOR BLOCKING TO RETROGRADE WITH TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET AROUND 5 TO 12 KTS,
BUT WILL DECREASE TOWARDS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. GOOD VISIBILITY WILL BE IN PLACE DUE
TO SEASONALLY DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/MCCLURE
AVIATION...ERVIN
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