123
FXUS63 KDVN 280723
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
223 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY RETURN
TODAY AND WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
- THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY (50-70%) THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE NEAR-SURFACE CONCENTRATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LOW, HAZY SKIES ARE LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE AREA, TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE SETTLED INTO THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S AND LOW TO UPPER 70S, RESPECTIVELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MUCH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH NORTHEAST
MISSOURI HAVING A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF REACHING INTO THE LOW
90S. WITH THIS DROP IN TEMPERATURES FROM YESTERDAY, THE LOWER
HUMIDITY WILL BE QUITE APPARENT AS HEAT INDICES REACH ONLY INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. ALSO APPARENT WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT. THIS SMOKE WILL STAY MOSTLY ALOFT DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP VERTICAL MIXING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT, IF THICK
ENOUGH, THIS LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT COULD HELP TEMPER HIGHS BY A
DEGREE OR TWO.
A SIMILAR STORY REPEATS ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOW FOR STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, SMOKE ALOFT WILL
DISPERSE SLIGHTLY BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF SMOKE ALOFT MOVES IN
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
THURSDAY...
ONCE AGAIN, THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF CALM AND SEASONABLE
SUMMER DAYS, ALBEIT WITH SOME DIFFERENCES. THE MOST NOTABLE OF
THESE IS THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE RETROGRADING WESTWARD AND
A SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING THROUGH ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY IN THE
GREAT PLAINS. LOCALLY, SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL ADVECT IN A MOISTER
AIRMASS. TOGETHER, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, A COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
RETROGRADING AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING IN
THE RIDGE THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
AS THIS SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE
RIDGE, IT WILL PROVIDE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH ANY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMES THE QUESTION OF HOW LIKELY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERE STORMS HAVE A LOWER PROBABILITY (10-20%), AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OF 10-30 KTS AND MUCAPE OF LESS THAN 1000 J/KG WOULD PROVIDE ONLY A
MARGINAL DEGREE OF SUPPORT FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER,
PARAMETERS UPSTREAM IN THE GREAT PLAINS ARE BETTER ALIGNED TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION, SUGGESTING THERE COULD BE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED STORMS TO FORM IN THIS AREA. ADDITIONAL
UNCERTAINTY IS IN THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, AS GUIDANCE DIFFERS
ON HOW LONG THE TROUGH WILL TAKE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, ONE
EXAMPLE IS THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, WHICH HAS THE SYSTEM LINGER
INTO THE WEEKEND AND WOULD THUS HAVE A LONGER PERIOD OF
RAINFALL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING
DAYS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BECOME NORTHERLY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AS
WE ENTER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY. OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND, SUBTLE
RIDGING AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP
INTO THE 80S ONCE MORE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
METAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE COLD FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH ALL
TERMINALS, TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. WITH
INCOMING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD SLOW
ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY PATCHY AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING.
WHILE THERE WILL BE HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE ALOFT, IT IS
UNLIKELY THAT THIS SMOKE WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND LIMIT
VISIBILITY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page