157
FXUS63 KDVN 281924
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
224 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND HAZY SKIES
LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY (50-70%) THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS BROUGHT LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE 7 TO 12 DEGREES
COOLER COMPARED TO 24 HRS AGO. HOWEVER, IT STILL FEELS QUITE
HUMID ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THROUGH WEST CENTRAL IL, WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE UPPER 70S. VISIBLE SATELLITE
DEPICTED A NICE SCT-BKN LOW CLOUD DECK, ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS
TODAY THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS COOLER. SOME SMOKE ALOFT WAS ALSO
NOTED ON SATELLITE CREATING A HAZY/MILKY LOOKING SKY.
DECREASING CLOUDS AND QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 60S AREA-WIDE, WITH SOME
UPPER 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTHERN IL. WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES AND VERY
LIGHT WIND, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FOG DEVELOPING IN RIVER VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST
IL. DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE PUBLIC FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT
WILL PASS ON TO THE EVENING SHIFT FOR ANY POSSIBLE ADDITIONS.
WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SIMILAR HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S IS FORECAST. THE ONLY CAVEATS TO THAT WOULD BE THE
MIXING DEPTH AND ANY INFLUENCE OF SMOKE ALOFT THAT COULD KEEP
US A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER. MODEL NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE AND AQI
OUTPUTS KEEP THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS WELL TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH AND THUS HAVE LEFT OUT ANY SMOKE MENTION IN THE GRIDS
BECAUSE OF THIS. OVERNIGHT, SOME MORE FOG MAY DEVELOP EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE HIGH. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
CONTINUED DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY,
AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND BUILDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME, ALL ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE A STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TOP
OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL INITIALLY BE POINTED TO OUR WEST,
KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...AS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME RANGE, THE LATEST
DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA HAS VARYING SOLUTIONS OF THE EVOLUTION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT EVIDENT BY
PWS INCREASING TO 1.6-1.7" RANGE (90TH PERCENTILE) AND LARGE SCALE
FORCING TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A DPROG/DT
OF 24-HR QPF GREATER THAN 0.50" FROM THE NBM HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE
INTO THE 70-75% RANGE. THIS IS GOOD NEWS AND WILL BE MUCH
WELCOMED FOR THE CWA, AS MOST OF THE REGION HAS SEEN LESS THAN
0.05" IN THE PAST 7 DAYS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE SEVERE RISK, THE
LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF MUCAPE>500 J/KG & DEEP LAYER
SHEAR>30KTS AND NCAR ML SEVERE PROBS WOULD CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
VERY LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. BETTER SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE DISPLACED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER EASTERN
MO. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, LATEST NBM HAS COME DOWN FOR HIGHS
ON FRIDAY INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. HOWEVER, SOME FURTHER
LOWERING INTO THE MID 70S WILL BE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
PRECIP/CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
SATURDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
SEEN SATURDAY AM, EXITING THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
BY MID-DAY. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE, THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
RATHER PLEASANT START TO THE MONTH OF AUGUST. DRY CONDITIONS
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
A SCATTERED-BROKEN DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 1-3 HOURS, BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AT MLI/BRL/CID. MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILITIES FOR
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DBQ EARLY WEDNESDAY AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SMOKE TO REMAIN ALOFT,
WITH JUST SOME HAZY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
VSBY REDUCTIONS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...GROSS
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