957
FXUS63 KDVN 291144
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND HAZY SKIES
LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY (60-90%) THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
YET ANOTHER SEASONABLE LATE JULY DAY IS IN STORE TODAY, EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE SHOWS AREAS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER SOUTHEAST
IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WHICH WILL MOVE OFF AROUND
SUNRISE. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS WE SIT ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS SUBDUED TO THE LOW TO UPPER 80S AND UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL HELP LIMIT TEMPERATURES IS
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN HIGH
CONCENTRATIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THURSDAY WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR. AS THE 500 MB RIDGE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD, THE HIGH OVER WISCONSIN WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD AND SETTLE
JUST TO OUR EAST OVER NORTHEAST ILLINOIS. AS WINDS SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THURSDAY NIGHT MARKS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FROM THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE DAYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES ROOTED IN THE
UPSTREAM FLOW. AHEAD OF THE WAVE, MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT, BRINGING IN PWATS OF 1.7-2.0 INCHES BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY. THIS, ALONG WITH BROAD LIFT ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT, WILL SUPPORT A WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY,
BUT THIS EVENT WILL PROVIDE MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL. 24-HOUR
ACCUMULATIONS OF AT LEAST 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE, RANGING FROM A
30% CHANCE IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO A 70% CHANCE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. AS IS COMMON AT THIS LENGTH PRIOR TO THE EVENT,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL BE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK. GUIDANCE FALLS INTO
TWO SCENARIOS: ONE WITH THE TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE OTHER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH
THE NORTHERN TRACK, THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHILE WITH THE SOUTHERN TRACK, THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CWA.
WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL FALL INTO THE
70S. THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY,
THOUGH SLIGHTLY WARMER AS CLOUDS AND RAINFALL CLEAR OUT AROUND
MIDDAY. THE BIGGER STORY FOR SATURDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL INDUCE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN SOUTHEAST IOWA.
SYNOPTICALLY-DRIVEN GUSTY WINDS LIKE THIS ARE UNUSUAL FOR EARLY
AUGUST, AS IS NOTED BY EFI VALUES OF 0.6-0.85 FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. THESE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE LOW PROGRESSES FURTHER
EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONCE AGAIN, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A SERIES OF PLEASANT AND DRY EARLY AUGUST DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO PREVAILING VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SKY MAY APPEAR HAZY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE
ALOFT, WITH LITTLE TO NO NEAR SURFACE IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...UTTECH
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