289
FXUS63 KDVN 311919
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
219 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BRING
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A BRIEF TORNADO OR SEVERE WIND
GUST BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM, BRINGING
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS ROUND, SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DRY SLOT WORKING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DRY SLOT HAS PLENTY OF GAPS IN THE CLOUD
COVER, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HEATING AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. LATEST TRENDS IN SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH SHEAR
ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASING. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR (25-35
KTS IN THE DEEP LAYER) IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
STORMS. STORM MODE WILL LARGELY BE MIXED-MODE, WITH SOME SEMI
DISCRETE CELLS. IF ANY CELLS BECOME SUPERCELLULAR, THERE WILL BE A
LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. THIS THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON SURFACE
HEATING, ESPECIALLY WITH SHEAR BEING MARGINAL. AS SUCH, THE SPC
CONTINUES TO HOLD MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
WHEN LOOKING AT HAZARD POTENTIAL IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, BRIEF
TORNADOES AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LARGELY BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80,
WHERE THE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS FOUND, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS.
NOT ONLY WILL WE HAVE THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
BUT THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
GUIDANCE FAVORS PWATS BETWEEN 2.00-2.50", WHICH IS NEAR DAILY MAX
WHEN COMPARED TO OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. FOR REFERENCE, OUR
18Z SOUNDING SHOWS A 2.20" PWAT. THUS, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE AND WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF SOME AREAS SEE ANOTHER
1.00-2.00" OF RAIN WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER TOTALS
THAN THAT GIVEN RANGE, ESPECIALLY IF REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE SEEN, BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. WHILE
ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA CAN SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING MORE
COVERAGE OF THIS POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. GIVEN
RECENTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND THE STATE OF THE CROPS, MUCH OF THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD EASILY INFILTRATE INTO THE GROUND, LIMITING
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH, AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS MORNING, LARGELY IN URBAN AREAS, WILL HAVE A LOW-END FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO LEAD TO
CONCERNS IN URBAN AREAS. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
SATURDAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY
NOON, REMAINING AS SUCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, SITTING IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WE WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
RESULT THROUGH SATURDAY, OWING TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER. AFTER SUNSET, WE WILL
SEE THESE WINDS DECREASE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL HELP BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION TO THE
EAST SUNDAY, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION PROTRUDING FROM A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WILL SUPPORT
MORE QUIESCENT CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH NEAR-SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S) FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
IN TERMS OF ACTIVE WEATHER, IT APPEARS MAINLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WILL BE THE TIME TO WATCH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN,
ALLOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO APPROACH THE REGION. AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH, ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS OF
THE FRONT, AND THUS, TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THAT BOUNDARY.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LOW AT
THIS TIME, GIVEN MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS
FOR 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). THE VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE MORE LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER SIGNAL.
SCHULTZ
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
A MESSY AVIATION FORECAST IS AHEAD OF US, AS WE HAVE A SLOW-
MOVING STORM SYSTEM PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WE CURRENTLY ARE WATCHING THE SHIELD OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, WHICH HAS BROUGHT IFR VIS/CIGS TO
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, A BROKEN-OVERCAST DECK WILL REMAIN, WITH CIGS AROUND
1000-2000 FT. ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA BETWEEN 18-21Z, WITH INCREASING CHANCES AND COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z. WITH ANY SHOWER/STORM, LOWER CIGS AND
VIS CAN BE EXPECTED. WE CAN SEE CIGS DROP TO AS LOW AS 500 FT OR
LOWER, ESPECIALLY AT CID/DBQ AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, WITH VIS
BETWEEN 2-5 SM. AT MLI/BRL, CIGS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 500-1000 FT
IN THUNDERSTORMS WITH VIS OF 3-5 SM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS NOT IMPROVING FOR MANY UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z
SATURDAY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TERMINALS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY
DROPPING VIS LOWER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING OVERHEAD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WINDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 00-12Z. AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE LOW, WINDS WILL LARGELY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST, BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY ON THE BACKSIDE AROUND
08Z AND BEYOND. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE QUITE A BIT ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 25-30 KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST BY 12Z SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. LARGELY
LIGHT (5-10 KTS) AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER THE
SURFACE LOW.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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