894
FXUS63 KDVN 010556
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1256 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BRING
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH A BRIEF TORNADO OR SEVERE WIND
GUST BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM, BRINGING
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
STORM SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF
THIS ROUND, SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DRY SLOT WORKING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS DRY SLOT HAS PLENTY OF GAPS IN THE CLOUD
COVER, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SURFACE HEATING AND FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80. LATEST TRENDS IN SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATE INCREASING
INSTABILITY IN THESE AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS, WITH SHEAR
ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASING. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR (25-35
KTS IN THE DEEP LAYER) IN THE ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
STORMS. STORM MODE WILL LARGELY BE MIXED-MODE, WITH SOME SEMI
DISCRETE CELLS. IF ANY CELLS BECOME SUPERCELLULAR, THERE WILL BE A
LOW-END SEVERE THREAT. THIS THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON SURFACE
HEATING, ESPECIALLY WITH SHEAR BEING MARGINAL. AS SUCH, THE SPC
CONTINUES TO HOLD MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5)
FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
WHEN LOOKING AT HAZARD POTENTIAL IN STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, BRIEF
TORNADOES AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL LARGELY BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80,
WHERE THE BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY IS FOUND, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW
LEVELS.
NOT ONLY WILL WE HAVE THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
BUT THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE AREA.
GUIDANCE FAVORS PWATS BETWEEN 2.00-2.50", WHICH IS NEAR DAILY MAX
WHEN COMPARED TO OUR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. FOR REFERENCE, OUR
18Z SOUNDING SHOWS A 2.20" PWAT. THUS, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE AND WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF SOME AREAS SEE ANOTHER
1.00-2.00" OF RAIN WITH THE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER TOTALS
THAN THAT GIVEN RANGE, ESPECIALLY IF REPEATED ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE SEEN, BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. WHILE
ANYWHERE IN OUR AREA CAN SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, SHORT TERM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING MORE
COVERAGE OF THIS POTENTIAL ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. GIVEN
RECENTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND THE STATE OF THE CROPS, MUCH OF THIS
RAINFALL SHOULD EASILY INFILTRATE INTO THE GROUND, LIMITING
FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH, AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL
THIS MORNING, LARGELY IN URBAN AREAS, WILL HAVE A LOW-END FLASH
FLOOD THREAT AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL ALSO LEAD TO
CONCERNS IN URBAN AREAS. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.
SATURDAY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY
NOON, REMAINING AS SUCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS, SITTING IN THE MID-UPPER 70S. WE WILL
BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH CLOUDS STARTING TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
RESULT THROUGH SATURDAY, OWING TO THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WE WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE
THROUGHOUT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 30 MPH OR HIGHER. AFTER SUNSET, WE WILL
SEE THESE WINDS DECREASE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL HELP BRING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FINALLY DEPART THE REGION TO THE
EAST SUNDAY, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION PROTRUDING FROM A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WILL SUPPORT
MORE QUIESCENT CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH NEAR-SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S) FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
IN TERMS OF ACTIVE WEATHER, IT APPEARS MAINLY WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY
WILL BE THE TIME TO WATCH AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN,
ALLOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO APPROACH THE REGION. AN ATTENDANT
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALSO PROGGED TO ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH, ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS OF
THE FRONT, AND THUS, TIMING OF PRECIPITATION WITH THAT BOUNDARY.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THIS FRONT APPEARS TO BE PRETTY LOW AT
THIS TIME, GIVEN MODEST VALUES OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR (25-35 KNOTS
FOR 0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES). THE VARIOUS MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE MORE LIMITED SEVERE
WEATHER SIGNAL.
SCHULTZ
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA IS FORECASTED TO KEEP A
BKN TO OVC STRATUS DECK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING
BETWEEN 500 TO 1500 FEET (MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS) AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO 300 TO 800 FEET (IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS)
FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 9 UTC. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AREAWIDE WHICH COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY BELOW 5SM AND OCCASIONALLY BELOW 2SM. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, CLEARING ALL TAF SITES BY 21 UTC. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE, WIND ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. IN BETTER NEWS, THE CLOUD
DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING,
PAVING THE WAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...DELAUNE
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