832
FXUS63 KDVN 010633
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
133 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST, PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS (50-80%) THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH ARE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE PASSING SYSTEM AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A NEARLY CLOSED HEIGHTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
RETURNS AREAWIDE TODAY. A POSITIVE MID-LEVEL F-GEN BAND AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-80% COVERAGE)
AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE ALOFT SLOWLY TAMPER DOWN POPS. OVERCAST
SKIES IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE
AGAIN IN THE 70S BEFORE THE SKIES CLEAR OUT, OPENING THE DOOR
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS TO DROP INTO LOW 60S. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AROUND 25-35 MPH THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE LATER INTO THE
EVENING.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FUN DAY WITH THE DRY, MILD CONDITIONS TO END
THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON THE BACKSIDE OF SATURDAY'S LOW PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 MPH AS CAA ALLOW HIGHS TO ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL DIP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SUNDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
ZOOMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET AND
MILD ON MONDAY AS THE ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE CAMPS OVER OUR
AREA. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA INCHES TOWARDS IOWA.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...DESPITE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAIN LIFTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY, A LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF
THE COLD FRONT INTO IOWA. POPS RETURN MOSTLY SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AND THE FRONT, BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE (10-20%) AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AS THE LONGWAVE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SOME MID-LEVEL F-GEN OVER
IOWA NORTH OF THE SLOWING COLD FRONT, KEEPING POPS (30-50%) AND
CLOUD COVER AROUND. BY THURSDAY, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY
REACHES THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND BUMPING DOWN POPS
(20-30%). TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY (60-90%)
TO BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
FRIDAY...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES LIKELY
EMBEDDED. THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA COULD
ALSO ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM, BUT POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HOPEFULLY KEEP POPS AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA IS FORECASTED TO KEEP A
BKN TO OVC STRATUS DECK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY SITTING
BETWEEN 500 TO 1500 FEET (MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS) AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO 300 TO 800 FEET (IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS)
FOR ALL TAF SITES BY 9 UTC. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO BRING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AREAWIDE WHICH COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY BELOW 5SM AND OCCASIONALLY BELOW 2SM. THESE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST, CLEARING ALL TAF SITES BY 21 UTC. ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE, WIND ARE ALSO FORECASTED TO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH TO AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. IN BETTER NEWS, THE CLOUD
DECK SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING,
PAVING THE WAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DELAUNE
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...DELAUNE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page