497
FXUS63 KDVN 011723
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST, PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORMS (50-80%) THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.
- GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS UP TO 25-35 MPH ARE MOVING IN BEHIND
THE PASSING SYSTEM AND ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONABLE VALUES AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A NEARLY CLOSED HEIGHTS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
RETURNS AREAWIDE TODAY. A POSITIVE MID-LEVEL F-GEN BAND AND
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ON BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-80% COVERAGE)
AROUND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
AGEOSTROPHIC CONVERGENCE ALOFT SLOWLY TAMPER DOWN POPS. OVERCAST
SKIES IN THE MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP HIGHS BELOW AVERAGE
AGAIN IN THE 70S BEFORE THE SKIES CLEAR OUT, OPENING THE DOOR
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS TO DROP INTO LOW 60S. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AROUND 25-35 MPH THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE LATER INTO THE
EVENING.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE FUN DAY WITH THE DRY, MILD CONDITIONS TO END
THE FIRST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
ON THE BACKSIDE OF SATURDAY'S LOW PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 10-15 MPH AS CAA ALLOW HIGHS TO ONLY
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL DIP
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SUNDAY NIGHT HEADING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MONDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
ZOOMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, KEEPING CONDITIONS QUIET AND
MILD ON MONDAY AS THE ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE CAMPS OVER OUR
AREA. THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG THOUGH AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT OVER
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA INCHES TOWARDS IOWA.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...DESPITE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAIN LIFTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA ON TUESDAY, A LONGWAVE
TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED PROPAGATION OF
THE COLD FRONT INTO IOWA. POPS RETURN MOSTLY SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AND THE FRONT, BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE (10-20%) AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AS THE LONGWAVE
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT SOME MID-LEVEL F-GEN OVER
IOWA NORTH OF THE SLOWING COLD FRONT, KEEPING POPS (30-50%) AND
CLOUD COVER AROUND. BY THURSDAY, THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY
REACHES THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA AND BUMPING DOWN POPS
(20-30%). TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY (60-90%)
TO BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 60S.
FRIDAY...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY AS
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH STILL SITS OVER THE AREA WITH SHORTWAVES LIKELY
EMBEDDED. THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA COULD
ALSO ACT AS A LIFTING MECHANISM, BUT POCKETS OF DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HOPEFULLY KEEP POPS AND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM 21-01Z THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
RAIN SHOWERS HAS DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT, RESULTING IN VIS
REMAINING AROUND 4/5 SM IN THE RAIN. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF REMNANT RAIN SHOWERS BY 00Z. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS,
WITH MOST SITES AROUND/OVER 1000 FT NOW, EXCEPT AREAS SEEING
SHOWERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CIGS LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH ALL TAF SITES SEEING VFR CIGS AROUND 01Z. WE
MIGHT SEE A RESURGENCE OF SCATTERED-BROKEN LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT, AFTER 10Z, WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF
SITES.
ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS, WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, WE WILL SEE
THESE WINDS DECREASE QUITE A BIT, LEAVING MOST SITES WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DELAUNE
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...GUNKEL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page