744
FXUS63 KDVN 011940
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
MOST BEING DRY BY SUNSET TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK, WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK, INTRODUCING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST, WITH THE LAST BIT OF
SHOWERS LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AT OR AROUND SUNSET
TODAY, LEAVING US WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S. WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL RESULT, WITH A
MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN, LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES AROUND
80. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL END TO THE WEEKEND!
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE THIS UPPER RIDGE BREAK DOWN
WITH A WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA, FLATTENING THE
RIDGE. THE WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE SLOW TO GET HERE, WITH BEST WARM ADVECTION
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT TUESDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WEDNESDAY, WHEN WE SEE THE BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING, MOST GLOBAL MODELS
FAVOR PRECIPITATION ONSET IN OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL, BUT WE MIGHT HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE.
AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM PASSES, WE WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP US UNDER THE PATH OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING ALONG THE FLOW OF
THE UPPER TROF. THUS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR-DAILY SLIGHT-
CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WITH
A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE FAVORS
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LLVLS UNDER THIS PATTERN, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM 21-01Z THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
RAIN SHOWERS HAS DROPPED OFF QUITE A BIT, RESULTING IN VIS
REMAINING AROUND 4/5 SM IN THE RAIN. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE
CLEAR OF REMNANT RAIN SHOWERS BY 00Z. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND THE CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS.
CIGS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS,
WITH MOST SITES AROUND/OVER 1000 FT NOW, EXCEPT AREAS SEEING
SHOWERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CIGS LIFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH ALL TAF SITES SEEING VFR CIGS AROUND 01Z. WE
MIGHT SEE A RESURGENCE OF SCATTERED-BROKEN LOW CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT, AFTER 10Z, WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SOME TAF
SITES.
ASIDE FROM LOW CIGS, WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 25-30 KTS. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, WE WILL SEE
THESE WINDS DECREASE QUITE A BIT, LEAVING MOST SITES WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-10 KTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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