654
FXUS63 KDVN 020007
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
707 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR SOME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
MOST BEING DRY BY SUNSET TODAY. DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN INTO
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK, WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY WILL START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK, INTRODUCING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST, WITH THE LAST BIT OF
SHOWERS LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AT OR AROUND SUNSET
TODAY, LEAVING US WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING
AND NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOW 60S. WEAK RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY, WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA AND
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BEAUTIFUL DAY WILL RESULT, WITH A
MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN, LIGHTER NORTHEAST WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES AROUND
80. ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL END TO THE WEEKEND!
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND SLOWLY TRACK EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE THIS UPPER RIDGE BREAK DOWN
WITH A WAVE PUSHING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA, FLATTENING THE
RIDGE. THE WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE A LITTLE SLOW TO GET HERE, WITH BEST WARM ADVECTION
MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE NIGHT TUESDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WEDNESDAY, WHEN WE SEE THE BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WHILE
THERE ARE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING, MOST GLOBAL MODELS
FAVOR PRECIPITATION ONSET IN OUR NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL, BUT WE MIGHT HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE.
AFTER THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM PASSES, WE WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL
KEEP US UNDER THE PATH OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING ALONG THE FLOW OF
THE UPPER TROF. THUS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE NEAR-DAILY SLIGHT-
CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WITH
A BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION. GUIDANCE FAVORS
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LLVLS UNDER THIS PATTERN, WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TO INCREASE DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING THERE IS A SIGNAL IN SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE FOR MVFR CIGS MOVING IN ON NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW,
WITH POCKETS OF IFR. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HREF PROBABILITIES
FOR CIGS <2KFT AT 60-90% AREAWIDE DEVELOPING 09Z-15Z AND 50-70% AT
<1KFT, WHILE NBM PROBABILITIES <3KFT AT 25-50% AND 15-35% AT <1KFT
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES DBQ TO MLI. RECENT HRRR CIG FORECAST
TRENDS FOLLOW MORE CLOSELY TO THE NBM DEPICTING HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON
AT LEAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING INTO DBQ AND MLI 09Z-15Z. CU RULE
SUPPORTS LIKELIHOOD OF A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS FORMING AHEAD OF THE
LOWER STRATUS, PARTICULARLY AT BRL BY MID MORNING AND POSSIBLY CID.
BOTTOM LINE, VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST OF TONIGHT THEN TRANSITIONING TO
MVFR WITH STRATUS/STRATOCU AT MOST SITES SUNDAY AM. DO ANTICIPATE
LIFTING TO VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH EXACT TIMING IS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN FROM N/NE 5-15 KT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO LIMIT FOG CONCERNS. HOWEVER, IF MORE
BL DECOUPLING OCCURS THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THEN WE COULD SEE
SOME IFR TO MVFR FOG (2-5SM) DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AM.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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