490
FXUS63 KDVN 021132
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
632 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WORK WEEK, INTRODUCING CHANCES (50-80%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS, AS TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY SLOWLY INCREASE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SANDWICHED BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A TROUGH
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH THE WINDS DYING DOWN AFTER A WINDY
SATURDAY AS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO IOWA. HIGHS
ARE FORECASTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST, IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. SUBSIDING
WINDS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SUPPORT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID-50S TO LOW 60S.
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE A RINSE-AND-REPEAT OF SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 1-2 DEGREES ON THE WARMER SIDE. THE RIDGE SHIFTS
OVER THE CWA AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MANITOBA
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA
AND SHIFT OUR WINDS BACK TO SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR POPS AND MUGGY HUMIDITY TO RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...DESPITE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING INTO CANADA,
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES, KEEPING THE COLD FRONT PROPAGATING
INTO IOWA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-80%
COVERAGE) ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE MAIN AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
BE PRESENT. SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED
DUE TO THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS
ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE OF SBCAPE EXCEEDING 500 J/KG AND AT LEAST
25 KNOTS OF SFC-TO-500 MB BULK SHEAR PER THE 02.12Z LREF RUN. BY
WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO CLEAR MOST OF THE
CWA WITH IT STALLING SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. A NEW LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR THE OKLAHOMA-KANSAS BORDER COULD PROVIDE SOME LOW-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MID-LEVEL F-GEN JUST NORTH OF THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE. POPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON WEDNESDAY AROUND
50-70%. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY REACHES UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY, PULLING THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ILLINOIS. POPS (30-50%)
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER NORTHERN IOWA.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN IOWA SHIFTS OVER
OUR CWA ON FRIDAY, LIKELY KEEPING THE AREA DRY (70-90%). AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS ALOFT, THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR QUICK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES WHICH COULD BRING BURSTS OF PRECIPITATION
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS WERE SEEN OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE TO FOG IN ISOLATED
SPOTS. AS THE FOG IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, AN
MVFR/IFR STRATUS DECK IS SINKING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM WISCONSIN
TOWARDS THE LOCAL TERMINALS, LIKELY TO IMPACT DBQ AND MLI (LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR CID). IN TIME, THIS STRATUS DECK SHOULD
DISSIPATE, LEADING TO A PERIOD OF DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS AREA-
WIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS NEAR
MID-DAY, BEFORE BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE AREA.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DELAUNE
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page