352
FXUS63 KDVN 161853
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
153 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH, WITH GRADUALLY LOWER HUMIDITY
ARRIVING.
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF MUCH NEEDED QUIET AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- A SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH SEVERE WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THE EXCESSIVE HUMIDITY IF FINALLY DROPPING THIS AFTERNOON! ANOTHER
IN A NIGHTLY SERIES OF EASTWARD MOVING MCS MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH NOON, AND INTO WEST CENTRAL
IL THROUGH 1 PM. THIS STORM CLUSTER BROUGHT A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN,
GUSTY WINDS, AND LIGHTNING TO OUR SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES, WHILE TO
THE NORTH, A FEW SURFACE BASED SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS FIRED ALONG
THE COLD FRONT AROUND NOON. BOTH OF THESE AREAS ARE DECAYING AND
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE FINALLY DROPPING BELOW 70 IN OUR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES. THIS LESS HUMID, BUT STILL SUMMER FEELING AIR WILL BE
WIDESPREAD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND MONDAY, WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S. NORMALLY, WE WOULDN'T CALL THAT DRY, BUT AFTER CONTINUOUS
WEEKS OF 75+ DEW POINTS, AND SOME PERIODS OF LOWER 80 DEW POINTS,
THIS AIR WILL FEEL MARVELOUS.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT, AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BLOW AROUND 5-7MPH. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE NIGHTLY FOG POTENTIAL WE
HAVE SEEN, BUT WITH WET SOILS, THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
HIGHLIGHTING IN OUR FORECAST TONIGHT.
MONDAY, A TRUE QUIET WEATHER DAY IS FORECAST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE,
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
IS FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WILL KEEP A
SUMMER FEEL TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
TUESDAY WILL SEE A TEMPORARY RETURN TO HIGHER HUMIDITY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS INCREASED HUMIDITY
MAY FUEL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS LATE MORNING. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE THE DECAYING / REMNANTS OF UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. IN ANY CASE, CLOUD COVER IS LOOKING PLENTIFUL
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S. AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS REMAIN 50-80% PROBABILITY, AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ALONG WITH A SEASONALLY STRONG SHORT
WAVE, PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. STORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30-40KTS, WHICH SUPPORTS A WIND THREAT, AND
LINE ORGANIZATION. DETAILS SUCH AS EXACT TIMING, MESOSCALE DETAILS
THAT MAY ENHANCE OR REDUCE SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE IN BETTER
CONFIDENCE TOMORROW. FOR NOW, WE WILL STICK WITH SPC PRODUCTS TO
ADVERTISE THIS SEVERE STORM THREAT, WHICH IS LEVEL 2/5.
PLEASANT, MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY, WITH FAR
DRIER AIR IN PLACE, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS ALL IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO BRING COOLER AIR ALOFT,
SO SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE DAILY FOG
AND RELENTLESS HUMIDITY SHOULD BE ABSENT FOR THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD, AND WILL BE EAST OF TERMINALS BY 18Z. OTHERWISE, WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND SOME SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY,
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KTS EXPECTED, AND A FEW GUSTS TO
20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL CONTINUE JUST SOUTH OF BRL FOR
A FEW HOURS, BUT LITTLE LIGHTNING THREAT EXISTS AT THIS TIME.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY ARRIVE TODAY, WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING VFR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND REMAINING MOSTLY VFR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING. STILL, WITH WET GROUND, WE WILL POTENTIALLY
STILL DEAL WITH SOME SHALLOW FOG INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
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