586
FXUS63 KDVN 190532
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1232 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
- OUTSIDE OF ANOTHER FRONT BRING A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM RISK
TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE VERY LIMITED OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW CLEARING OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COOL FRONT. THE OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK AS IS THE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT. THUS THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN.
BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, PRUDENCE
DICTATES GOING WITH A 15-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
THE CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN
LIMITED INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. HOWEVER, PROGGED SOUNDINGS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE DO GIVE WEAK SUPPORT THAT A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES OCCUR, THE PRIMARY RISK
WOULD BE HAIL FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
ONCE SUNSET OCCURS THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DROP WITH
SOME WEAK BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION FESTERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.
ON WEDNESDAY THERE SHOULD BE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION SOUTH OF I-80
DURING THE MORNING THAT SLOWLY DISSIPATES. IF DIURNAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, IT WOULD BE ISOLATED DUE TO THE LACK
OF UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND WOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF
I-80.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
ASSESSMENT...LOW (20-30%) CONFIDENCE ON LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES
THE MODELS HAVE ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING TIME FRAME. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES WELL INTO NEXT WEEK SO THE OVERALL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE FOR RAIN WILL BE LIMITED. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS IS
AT A 20-35% CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE BETTER CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-80.
OUTSIDE OF THIS TIME PERIOD, THE PROSPECTS FOR RAIN IS VERY LIMITED
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL START THE TAF PERIOD OUT, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. A BOUNDARY STALLED OUT NORTH OF THE AREA HAS
ALLOWED FOR AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH, PLENTY OF CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD. THUS, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON
IF WE WILL SEE IMPACTS FROM FOG TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY, LARGELY IMPACTING DBQ. THUS, OPTED TO
ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR FOG AT DBQ, INTRODUCING 5 SM AND MIST
ELSEWHERE AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL ALSO BE THE CHANCE FOR A
BROKEN STRATUS DECK BETWEEN 2000-3000 FT BETWEEN 10-15Z THIS
MORNING, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CIGS POSSIBLE AT DBQ.
AFTER 15Z, WE WILL SEE CIGS LIFT AND REMAIN VFR UNTIL AT LEAST
18Z. AFTER 18Z, WE WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS,
LARGELY IMPACTING AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. OPTED TO
INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR BRL AT THIS TIME, AS THAT IS WHERE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS ARE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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