676
FXUS63 KDVN 191842
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
142 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-40%) CONVECTION CAN BE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF I-80 THROUGH SUNSET. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- MORE FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE.
- OUTSIDE OF ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A FRONT LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, RAIN CHANCES LOOK VERY LIMITED INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
CONVECTION HAS INITIATED SOUTH OF I-80 AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY ADVANCING
COOL FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK AS IS THE
OVERALL FORCING. THUS THE CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET.
UNTIL THE SUN SETS, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESPECTABLE WITH SHEAR
SLOW INCREASING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND AN APPROACHING
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT MAX. WHILE THE PROBABILITY IS LOW (<25%)
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM WHICH
MAY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER OR AT WORST A LOW END LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD.
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, PATCHY IF NOT AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WHICH MAY DROP VISIBILITIES
UNDER ONE HALF MILE IN SPOTS.
ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF AROUND MID-MORNING THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE SEEN.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW (20-30%) CONFIDENCE ON LATE WEEK RAIN CHANCES
THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO POINT TO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY EVENING FOR ANOTHER, ALBEIT LOW, CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF ANOTHER FRONT. GIVEN WHAT HAS HAPPENED WITH THE PREVIOUS
FRONT, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE 20-40% CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
DELAYED UNTIL THE FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD.
AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MEANS THAT ANY
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED. THUS THE
PROSPECTS FOR ANY RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE MORE LIKELY FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT TIME PERIOD IS VERY LIMITED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
CONVECTIVE INITIATION SOUTH OF I-80 IS EXPECTED BY 20Z/19.
ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED (15-35%) SHRA/TSRA WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH 02Z/20.
LIGHT WINDS AFTER 06Z/20 POINTS TO PATCHY OR AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH
14Z/20. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALIZED
LIFR CONDITIONS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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