744
FXUS63 KDVN 070752
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
252 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY AND PLEASANT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY.
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH NEAR-
ADVISORY HEAT INDICES IN FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.
- A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S THIS MORNING AS WE
SIT JUST TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE. THIS HAS MAINTAINED A DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA, AS SEEN BY WIDESPREAD DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 2-8
DEGREES. DUE TO THIS, CHANCES FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING ARE SLIM.
THE BEST CHANCES (10-20%) FOR ISOLATED AREAS IF FOG ARE ACROSS
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS, WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOWEST.
AFTER THE LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR FOG THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS AFTER
DAYBREAK, YET ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL EARLY SEPTEMBER DAY IS IN STORE
FOR THE HOLIDAY TODAY. SCATTERED CLOUD COVER WILL HELP LIMIT
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 10-20 MPH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO A PLEASANT BUT WARM
LABOR DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
PAST MONDAY, A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE AS A TROUGH ADVANCES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO CANADA. THIS WILL BRING US MULTIPLE
WEATHER CONCERNS OF HEAT, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS THE MIDLEVEL RIDGE COLLAPSES EASTWARD, LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY, ADVECTING IN WARM AND MOIST AIR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT, WITH
TUESDAY'S HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S, HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE
AS OPPRESSIVE AS LAST WEEK'S HEAT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AT THIS TIME, HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH ONLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA HAVING
MODERATE CHANCES OF EXCEEDING HEAT INDICES OF 100 DEGREES (20-60%).
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE A GREATER CONCERN THAN HEAT. MULTIPLE WAVES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA TROUGH WILL PASS
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAIN. WHILE SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (15-30%) TUESDAY MORNING,
THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THE
TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT ACROSS MUCH GUIDANCE, RAINFALL TOTALS DO
NOT. NBM 1-INCH EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OVER 48 HOURS ARE LOW AT 20-
50%. HOWEVER, SHEAR PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT TRAINING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. CAM GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS POTENTIAL,
AS CAN BE SEEN IN THE REFS'S 1-4 INCH 24-HOUR RAINFALL NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA. WHILE RECENT DRYNESS MAY HELP LIMIT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS, HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. AS A RESULT, WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT,
LEVEL 2 OF 4, RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR TUESDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING, CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO A MORE
MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS. SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL, LEVEL 1 OF 5, RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THIS SLOWING
DOWN, WITH SOME NOT HAVING THE FRONT EXIT UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING OR EVEN THURSDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WEDNESDAY, WHILE
STILL HOT, WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER BUT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO BECOME MORE ZONAL
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OUT, THOUGH MULTIPLE IMPULSES WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, STORMS, AND SOME HEAT TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDS IS CURRENTLY DISSIPATING OVER THE TERMINALS AS A MID DECK OF
CLOUDS AT 10-15 KFT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. WITH THIS
CLEARING AND EASTERLY FLOW FROM LAKE MICHIGAN, THERE IS A LIMITED
SIGNAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING EAST OF THE TERMINALS. WHILE TEMPERATURE-
DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES AT DBQ/MLI WILL REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO KEEP
CONFIDENCE LOW ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY MVFR OR LOWER VSBYS,
REDUCTIONS TO 6SM HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
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