395
FXUS63 KDVN 091807
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
107 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN IOWA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80.
- QUIET COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES
OVERHEAD.
- ANOTHER STRETCH OF POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION FOR SOME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN
ESTIMATED 0.5-3.0 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN EASTERN IOWA NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 380/HIGHWAY 218 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 0.5-
1.5 INCHES IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THROUGH MID-
MORNING AS PWATS MAXIMIZE NEAR 2.00+ INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS
IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR WHERE A TRAINING
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL IOWA TO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
WHILE WEAKER INSTABILITY IN EASTERN IOWA WILL LEAD TO THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY ENTER THE AREA, HEAVY RAIN WITH
RAINFALL RATES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, LEADING TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN, WHICH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
AS THE AXIS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DRIFTS SOUTHWARD, SUPPORT WILL
DECREASE WITH THE DECAY OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DECREASING COVERAGE PAST MID-MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
SHOWERS WILL HAVE FULLY EXITED THE AREA. HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WILL
CLEAR MORE SLOWLY, WHICH IN ADDITION TO THE MORNING SHOWERS WILL
HELP LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON, DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF DECENT LOOKING DAYS LOOK IN STORE
WITH BOUTS OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING ALLOWING FOR DRY AND NEAR
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE LATEST SUITE OF MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST FLATTENING FLOW AGAIN EMBEDDED WITH PASSING
SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTS MAKING FOR A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
PERIOD. FIRST IN LINE MAY BE SATURDAY WITH A SFC FRONT GETTING
SWEPT THROUGH THE AREA OFF A PASSING LLVL CYCLONE ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER. THEN MAYBE A SHORT LULL FOR SUNDAY BEFORE SIGNS
OF A DIGGING LONGER WAVE TROF ACRS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS ARCHING
STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FASHION TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS COULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER UNSETTLES PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK IF THIS PATTERN VERIFIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO SAG THROUGH THE AREA
MOST OF THE RAIN IS MOVING OFF TO THE SOUTH. BUT SAYING THAT
SOME OVERRUNNING POCKETS OF SHOWERS MAY STILL SKIRT THE SOUTH
OFF AND ON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THESE SHOWERS SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF BRL UNTIL MAYBE AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOW A NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE ACTIVITY AND MAY CLIP
BRL INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STILL SOME POST FRONTAL LOW
DECKS AT MVFR AND IFR LEVELS AFFECTING CID AND DBQ FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS, THEN EXPECT A CIG IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL BE ON
THE LIGHT SIDE VEERING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, TO WEST, AND
EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SLOW PASSING FRONT THROUGH
THE EVENING. WITH THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN, LIGHT WINDS AND
THINNING SKY COVER THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME FOG LATE
TONIGHT BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MIXED SIGNALS BY SEVERAL
OF THE LATEST MODELS ON HOW MUCH FOG OR IF MUCH OF ANY WILL
FORM. WILL LEAN TOWARD HAVING AT LEAST SOME MVFR FOG MENTION AT
MOST OF THE SITES FROM AFTER 09Z THROUGH SUNRISE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
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