997
FXUS63 KDVN 100558
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1258 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POST FRONTAL REGIME AND EVENTUAL INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THE NEXT MAIN CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND POSSIBLY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING BROAD AND RATHER DIFFUSE
LOOKING COOL FRONT DROPPING SLOWLY DOWN THE WESTERN GRT LKS AND IA
ATTM, WITH PRECURSOR SHOWERS CONTINUING TO GET SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AS
THE INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS STREAM EAST TO NORTHEAST. THERE MAY BE A
WINDOW WHEN THE BULK OF THE CWA IS DRY THIS EVENING, BUT THEN A
DIGGING SHORT WAVE(SEEN ON WV IMAGERY ACRS MT) ROLLS IN AND WILL
LOOK TO KICK UP MORE SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY
34 AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ELEVATED NATURE TO
THIS ACTIVITY, DON'T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
LATE TONIGHT.
THE OTHER CHALLENGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR SOME FOG. IF THE
SFC WINDS CAN STAY LIGHT ENOUGH AND WE GET ENOUGH THINNING SKY
COVER, FEEL THERE MAY BE AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ACRS
THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AREAS. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THIS WITH
SOME MODELS MAINTAINING 5-7 KT NORTHERLY SFC WINDS AND MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THUS NOT PRODUCING MUCH FOG AT ALL. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT RANGING
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH, TO THE UPPER 50S IN THE
NORTH.
THURSDAY... SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER FORM ONGOING
OVERRUNNING PROCESSES AND AMBIENT CU FORMATION IN THE NORTH, BUT DO
FEEL SOME IMPROVEMENT/CLEARING WILL OCCUR FORM NORTH TO SOUTH AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. WILL ADVERTISE GENERAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, BUT MAY BE MORE 70S IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE
STUBBORN TO CLEAR ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH. MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT
WINDS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THU NIGHT ALLOWING MORE OF THE AREA TO DIP
INTO THE 50S FOR LOW TEMPS, AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP MORE FOG IN MIND
ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FRIDAY...MOST MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF MIGRATING BOTH SFC AND
UPPER RIDGING OFF TO THE EAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME WARMING RETURN
FLOW ACRS THE REGION. MOST AREAS SHOULD RECOVER BACK UP INTO AT
LEAST THE LOWER 80S WITH SUNSHINE. THIS WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROFFINESS
ORGANIZES ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY
ALONG WITH UNDERLYING SFC FRONTOGENESIS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACRS
MUCH OF MN INTO THE MID MO RVR VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
CURRENT PROGRESSIVE LOOKING NATURE OF THE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT,
THERE MAY BE A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO BLEED DOWN INTO
THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING, IF IN A WEAKENING
FASHION.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT MAY BE PUSHING
OUT OF THE CWA BY EARLY SAT AFTERNOON, MAKING ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
SCOOPED UP BY THIS FROPA OCCURRING MORE IN THE MORNING TO MIDDAY AND
NOT THE MOST OPTIMUM TIME FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. PRE-FRONTAL
WARM AND MOIST DRAW WILL MAKE FOR A BIT WARMER AND HUMID DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 AND SFC DPTS POOLING IN THE UPPER
60S TO AROUND 70, BUT MUCH WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING AND THESE
WARMER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR ACRS MORE OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
DVN CWA, WHILE AREAS FROM DBQ AND CID AND WEST STAY IN THE 70S FOR
AMBIENT TEMPS. AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD
ALSO BE A TEMP LIMITING FACTOR.
A PASSING POST-FRONTAL RIDGE MAY THEN PRODUCE A SHORT PRECIP LULL
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE SIGNS OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT
DIGGING SHORT WAVE OR UPPER LOW ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AMPLIFIES
STEERING CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION WITH
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONTAL RETREAT THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT,
PLACING THE LOCAL AREA IN A BREEZY WARM SECTOR FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. HEAT INDICES MAY RANGE FROM 95 TO 100
AGAIN IF LOW TO MID 70 SFC DPTS CAN ADVECT UP THIS WAY. THUS LOCAL
HEAT WHILE A MCS OR TWO IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACRS TO THE HEART
OF THE GRT LKS LIKE A DEEP SUMMER STYLE PATTERN. AN EVENTUAL COLD
FRONTAL PUSH OFF THE PASSING WAVE TO THE NORTH, MAY BRING SOME
STORM ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA EITHER MONDAY
NIGHT OR INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE WE CAN COUNT ON A COOLING POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS AND HEAT REPRIEVE INTO THE MID NEXT WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
TAF PERIOD BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. WHILE A DECK OF SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS SITS OVER THE TERMINALS, IT IS DOING LITTLE TO HINDER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY MVFR FOG AT CID/MLI AS OF 10/06Z. ADDITIONAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS AT ALL
TERMINALS BEFORE BURNING OFF AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
IFR FOG AT MLI/BRL AT 20-50%. IN ADDITION TO FOG, BRL WILL HAVE A
BKN MVFR DECK MOVE IN AS FOG DISSIPATES, CONTINUING MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 10/17Z. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE VARIABLE AND
LIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
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