268
FXUS63 KDVN 101143
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
643 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POST FRONTAL REGIME AND EVENTUAL INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
- AN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THIS MORNING, HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI ARE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WHILE CLOUD COVER TYPICALLY HELPS LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT
LEADS TO FOG DEVELOPMENT, A MOIST SURFACE LAYER AND WEAK WINDS THIS
MORNING HAVE ALREADY CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. AS THESE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
EASTWARD, ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG REMAINS LOW (10-30%), WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
SMALLEST.
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK, LEADING TO A PLEASANT
AND DRY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CLOUD COVER WILL
CLEAR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO
DROP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, FRIDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF
TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO
OUR WEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD, AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS NEAR-ZONAL
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR-DAILY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... FOLLOWING A BRIEF BOUT OF RIDGING, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS IT PLOWS INTO A POOL OF
MODEST INSTABILITY.
ALSO ON SATURDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL SHAPE THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WHILE MODELS PRESENT A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
TRACK, ALL AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, RIDGING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING
US THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP SUPPORT GROWING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS, ALONG WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT, SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT, LEVEL 2 OF 5, RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA FOR MONDAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A COOLER BUT STILL ACTIVE PERIOD WITH NEAR-DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH SOME POCKETS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AREAS. HIGHER CLOUDS BLOWN OFF
OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI HAS HELPED CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE OVERALL, AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS THE
MORNING GOES ON. THE HIGHER CLOUDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH FROM THE
NORTH AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS, WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE FOG TONIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ007-009-
017-018.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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