963
FXUS63 KDVN 101711
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1211 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POST FRONTAL REGIME AND EVENTUAL INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE FAIR AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
- AN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THIS MORNING, HIGH CLOUDS FROM STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI ARE
IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
WHILE CLOUD COVER TYPICALLY HELPS LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT
LEADS TO FOG DEVELOPMENT, A MOIST SURFACE LAYER AND WEAK WINDS THIS
MORNING HAVE ALREADY CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED AREAS OF PATCHY FOG,
PRIMARILY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS. AS THESE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
EASTWARD, ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG REMAINS LOW (10-30%), WITH THE GREATEST
CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
SMALLEST.
FOG WILL BURN OFF IN THE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK, LEADING TO A PLEASANT
AND DRY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. CLOUD COVER WILL
CLEAR GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR TEMPS OVERNIGHT TO
DROP ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA, FRIDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF
TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO
OUR WEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD, AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS NEAR-ZONAL
TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS NEAR-DAILY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... FOLLOWING A BRIEF BOUT OF RIDGING, AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS IT PLOWS INTO A POOL OF
MODEST INSTABILITY.
ALSO ON SATURDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHICH WILL SHAPE THE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WHILE MODELS PRESENT A NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TIMING AND
TRACK, ALL AGREE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. AS THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, RIDGING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS WILL BRING
US THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP SUPPORT GROWING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. THIS, ALONG WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES, WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN FACT, SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT, LEVEL 2 OF 5, RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF THE CWA FOR MONDAY.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, A COOLER BUT STILL ACTIVE PERIOD WITH NEAR-DAILY
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
LIGHT FLOW WILL RESULT IN QUIET VFR WEATHER FOR ALL OF THE AREA
EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS TAKING MANY HOURS AT BRL, AND AS OF 17Z,
THEY REMAIN MVFR, WITH A CIG OF 1700 FT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT THROUGH AFTERNOON, AND VFR WEATHER IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE
AROUND 18-19Z, WITH QUIET VFR THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LATE
TONIGHT, WITH STRATUS NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF BRL, ANOTHER ROUND OF
LOW CIGS AND VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE, ENOUGH I HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO FOR IFR AFTER 08Z TONIGHT, THROUGH 12Z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...ERVIN
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