908
FXUS63 KDVN 110750
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34 PRIOR TO
SUNRISE TODAY.
- LOW CHANCES (10-25%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST
FOR STORMS ON MONDAY. DUE TO THIS, SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT,
LEVEL 2 OF 5, RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING, PRIMARILY ALONG
RIVER VALLEYS IN WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS
FOG IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND EXPAND AS FAR NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR. SOME
POCKETS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN OUR
SOUTHERNMOST TIER OF COUNTIES. AS SUCH, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHEAST IOWA, AND WEST-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF THIS MORNING, A PLEASANT AND MOSTLY CLEAR DAY
IS IN STORE AS WE REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. CLEAR SKIES WITH POCKETS
OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. OVERNIGHT, INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN TO
CENTRAL IOWA, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT. IF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS DO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
IOWA, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH EASTERN IOWA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
IN A DECAYING MODE. AS SUCH, LOW POPS HAVE BEEN CONTINUED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY.
WAA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, LEADING TO INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS. HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S
ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH AREAS OF CLOUDS COULD HELP TEMPER HIGHS,
ESPECIALLY IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A MODEST POOL OF
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE BEST VERTICAL SHEAR DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST, THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW, THOUGH
AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM COULD BE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AS SATURDAY'S SYSTEM DEPARTS, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL LEAVE US ON THE EASTERN EDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SANDWICHED BETWEEN COOL,
DRY AIR TO OUR NORTH AND WARM, MOIST AIR TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SETUP,
COMBINED WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WILL BRING US DAILY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE IN THIS ACTIVE PERIOD IS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS THIS WAVE TRENDING SLOWER, RESULTING
IN THE INITIAL WARM FRONT NOT REACHING THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS LEAD TO A DECREASING TREND IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR MONDAY, THOUGH HIGHS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL DUE
TO THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. THIS WILL ALSO ESTABLISH
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
NEAR 40-50 KTS AND THUS ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THIS IS MOST
LIKELY WITH FORCING ALONG A DESCENDING COLD FRONT, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING MAKES IT UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS THREAT WOULD
BE IN THE DAYTIME OR OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AS THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE AREA, IT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE
EXACTLY THIS BOUNDARY WILL SET UP, CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL
BE ALONG OUR SOUTH. THIS THEN PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ESPECIALLY AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PROVIDES A
CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE. ADDITIONAL WAVES TOWARDS THE LATTER
HALF OF THE PERIOD WILL HELP PUSH THIS BOUNDARY OUT OF THE REGION,
THOUGH CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS BUT BRL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF RIVER FOG HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF
ALL TERMINALS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ANY
FOG THAT DEVELOPS IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT BRL WITH MVFR TO IFR
VSBYS IN THE 11/08-14Z PERIOD. LIFR VSBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW (<30%). AS SUCH, THIS WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY AND AN AMD ISSUED IF LIFR CONDITIONS BECOME
EXPECTED. ALL OTHER TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY FOG-FREE AND THUS
VFR. WINDS THROUGH 11/13-15Z WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
STRENGTHENING TO 5-10 KTS AND SOUTHERLY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ099.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ILZ025-026-
034-035.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ010.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
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