019
FXUS63 KDVN 190817
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. RAPID RISES
ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS AND THE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING
AREAS ARE POSSIBLE.
- THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED SOUTHWARD A FEW
COUNTIES ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL IOWA AND FAR NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS, AND ALL OF IT EXTENDED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-3 INCHES ARE STILL LIKELY (60-80%) IN
THESE AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS/SWATHS OF
3+ INCHES.
- THE MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS HAS BEEN REMOVED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
LOOKING AT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND UPPER ANALYSIS, NOTICE A SHORT
WAVE TROF ACRS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IA, AND ANOTHER ONE LURKING
FURTHER UPSTREAM ACRS NORTH CENTRAL NM. MESSY SFC WAVE WITH MULTIPLE
TROFS AND BOUNDARIES PUSHING EAST ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY ATTM, AND
AS THE FEATURE RIDGE-RIDES EAST-NORTHEAST ACRS IA TODAY IT WILL TRY
TO PULL UP A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL CWA AT THE DAY PROGRESSES,
HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS IS STILL A QUESTION...I-80 MAY BE IT BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH TEMPS TODAY A CHALLENGE WITH
AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT IN CLOUDS AND HELD IN THE 70S, WHILE
AREAS IN THE SOUTH MAY GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH CLOUD
BREAKS. VERY UNSEASONABLE AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH HIGH SFC
DPTS AND 2+ INCH PWATS(3-4 SIGMA) IN CONVERGENT FLOW CURRENTLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CWA. THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE NEARBY WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO EITHER SEEP DOWN FROM THE
NORTH OR MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WITH BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING. THEN
MAYBE A BIT OF A PRECIP LULL DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH BOUNDARIES AND SFC WAVES ON THE MOVE ACRS
THE AREA THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED TO SCTRD PRECIP
PERCULATING ALL DAY.
AGREE WITH SPC PULLING MOST OF THE MARGINAL RISK OUT OF THE LOCAL
AREA FOR DAY 1, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE PRECIP LOADED DOWNBURST
OR GRAVITY WAVE ENHANCED DOWNWARD WIND THRUST IS STILL POSSIBLE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAIN THE
PRIMARY CONCERN. THE ADVERTISED 1-3 WITH LOCALIZED 4+ INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY SUNDAY MORNING STILL LOOK ON TARGET WHERE REPEATED
SHOWERS/STORMS OCCUR WITH THIS KIND OF PWAT FEED.
TONIGHT...THE ABOVE MENTIONED NM WAVE OR SOME VORT MAX/MCV WILL LOOK
TO ROLL UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS AND RIDGE-RIDE IT'S WAY
ACRS IA AND NORTHERN MO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PRE-SYSTEM
SOUTHWESTERLY 25+ KT LLJ WILL AGAIN FEED AND CONVERGE HIGH THTA-E
AIR UP ACRS THE REGION FUELING MORE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTED CONVECTIVE
BANDS. LLVL BOUNDARIES ALIGNED THE SAME WAY WILL BE THE FOCUS, AND
IT'S TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE THEY WILL LAY OUT BUT THE LATEST CAM
TYPE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST MAYBE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ALONG ANY STORM
TRAINING AXIS AND WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT AND ALL THESE
CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ADDING UP, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BOTH EXTENDED THE
ONGOING FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY, AS WELL AS ADDED SOME MORE
COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE ORIGINAL HEADLINE TO INCLUDE THE CEDAR
RAPIDS AND QUAD CITIES METRO AREAS FOR URBAN FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE
NEXT SHIFT DURING THE DAY WILL HAVE TO ASSESS THE NEED TO EXPAND
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH DEPENDING ON FOCAL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND
TRENDS. SOME TRANSIENT FOG MAY OCCUR IN PRECIP LULL WINDOWS THIS
MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS AN AFTER-THOUGHT BUT
MOST OF THE AREA TO GET DOWN IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
SUNDAY...A COOLER CLOUDY AND POST-FRONTAL DAY WITH ONGOING LIFT UP
AND OVER THE LLVL BAROCLINICITY WHICH SHOULD BE SETTLING OFF TO THE
SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY
LAYER(BL) WINDS WITH SOME SPOTTY RAIN WILL MAKE FOR NOT A VERY NICE
DAY WITH A LOT OF THE AREA HELD DOWN IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. WITH THE
UPPER WAVE STILL MOVING ACRS THE AREA, SUPPOSE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL AS NUISANCE FUNNELS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...QUICK LOOK AT THE LONGER RANGE SUGGESTS THAT
THE LARGE UPPER LOW/WAVE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN ID WILL
ROLL EASTWARD ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY KEEP CLOUDY, COOLER WEATHER GOING
ACRS THE AREA AS WELL AS SCTRD SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY NEXT WEEK
PERIOD. AS THIS UPPER WAVE FILLS AND PULLS OFF TO THE EAST, THERE
MAY BE A MID WEEK PRECIP LULL UNTIL MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE INDICATED
NEXT PASSING TROF BRINGS THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES BY THU NIGHT OR
NEXT FRIDAY. COOLER TEMP REGIME STILL LOOKS TO LAST MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
STUBBORN LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATOCU DECK ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80
WILL LOOK TO PULL NORTH INTO SAT MORNING BUT STILL PLAGUE CID
AND DBQ UNTIL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OR BLEED DOWN
FROM THE NORTH JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. THEN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE A FACTOR SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-80 INTO SAT EVENING. THIS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RIPPLES IN FROM THE WEST CAUSING A WARM FRONT TO
PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE AREA FOR INCREASING SOUTH WINDS DURING
THE DAY, THEN GOING VARIABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE WAVE PASSING THROUGH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND RELATED
REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL LIKLEY BE AN IMPACT AT CID, DBQ, AND
POSSIBLY MLI. THE CID AND POSSIBLY DBQ SITES MAY GET IN ON
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE
WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE ALSO ROUNDS OF
TRANSIENT MVFR TO IFR FOG MIXED IN PRECIP LULLS EARLY THIS SAT
MORNING, THEN AGAIN SAT NIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR IAZ040>042-052>054-
065>068.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-015.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page