146
FXUS63 KDVN 201615
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1115 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE OVER, THOUGH A SMALL UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN NEAR OUR LOCAL AREA WITH SHOWERS, WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
AND MOST CERTAINLY COOL CLOUDY CONDITIONS. THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
- EXPECTATIONS FOR SEVERAL BEAUTIFUL EARLY FALL DAYS ARE GROWING
FOR MID WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S-50S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE ONGOING AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, AS SEVERAL CREEKS ARE KNOWN TO BE FLOODING IN EASTERN
IOWA, INCLUDING INDIAN CREEK IN LINN COUNTY. THOUGH SOME FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE, THE WATER WAS REPORTED TO HAVE STOPPED RISING EARLY
THIS MORNING, AND IMPACTS WILL BE IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
RESULTING IN EXPIRATIONS OF THE FLOOD WATCH, AND AREAL FLOOD
WARNINGS.
ADDITIONAL RAIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE VERY
LIGHT, AND UNDER 0.25 WITH CERTAINTY. HOWEVER, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE
IN COOL SEASON EVENTS, THIS WILL BE A HIGH POP, LOW QPF EVENT TODAY,
AND AGAIN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO AN OVERALL WET PERIOD
CONTINUING THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING-PRODUCING MCS ACRS THE AREA ATTM WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER AND PRODUCE SOME WRAP AROUND RAINS WELL INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WITH EXPECTED FLOODING AND
LINGERING FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL AS SWOLLEN CREEKS/RIVERS
COMING UP, HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 18Z. THIS WITH THE
IDEA THAT THE NEXT SHIFT CAN CANCEL PORTIONS OF THE WATCH FROM THE
WEST AND THE NORTH AS NEED BE. THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
BEHIND THE EXITING LLVL WAVE TO BE CLOUDY, BREEZY AND COOLER IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S WITH SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN.
THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, KEEPING FOG AT
BAY. THERE IS SOME FOG THIS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRECIP LULL AREAS
SUCH AS THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACRS WY
ROLLS TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, MORE
SHOWERS MAY POP UP AND PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COOL CORE UPPER LOW
PROPAGATES ACRS MN AND IA, IT SHOULD CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
LIGHT SHOWERY REGIME FOR THE LOCAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF TUE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS
TUE NIGHT, CURRENTLY FCST THICKNESSES SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 40S.
IF SFC WINDS TREND LIGHT THE SAME NIGHT, WILL HAVE TO KEEP FOG
IN MIND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...QUICK LOOK AT THE LONGER RANGE SUGGESTS
KIND OF A MESSY AND PARTIALLY BLOCKED UPPER AIR PATTERN, WITH
ENOUGH RIDGING CLOSE BY OR OVERHEAD TO KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY
WED INTO THU, BEFORE AN UNDERCUTTING WAVE BATTLES THE RIDGING TO
BRING THE NEXT MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS BY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
THE HEAVIEST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE QUICKLY MOVING EAST
OF THE MS RIVER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IN IT'S WAKE WE ARE LEFT
WITH A LOW STRATUS THAT WILL BE GOING NOWHERE TODAY. THIS WILL
BE A FAIRLY DEEP CLOUD LAYER AS WELL, SO OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF
-RA OR DZ WILL BE OBSERVED MUCH OF THE DAY. CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL
PREDOMINATELY REMAIN IFR THIS PERIOD, THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO MVFR LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE UP AT DBQ AND CID AS SOME
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN WITH THE NNE WINDS. AS FOR WHEN
WE MAY FINALLY RID OURSELVES OF THE STRATUS, IT COULD BE ALL
THE WAY UNTIL WEDNESDAY BEFORE WE SEE SIGNIFICANT CLEARING OF
THE SKIES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>068-076>078.
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024.
MO...NONE.
UPDATE...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NWS
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