293
FXUS63 KDVN 221901
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
201 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RESPITE FROM THE RECENT RAINY PATTERN WILL BE SEEN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE RAINY PATTERN MAY RETURN
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK INFLUENCED BY TROPICAL
MOISTURE.
- THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND, ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MODERATION BY THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNSET AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SO SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%) CONFIDENCE ON MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE OF THE WET PATTERN
RETURNING
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE WEST FROM THE NOR'EASTER
ON THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY,
SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT.
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY ON, THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTH FROM THE
SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF.
THE STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN IOWA SO ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR EASTERN IOWA WOULD BE WEST OF A
LINE FROM DUBUQUE, IA TO KEOKUK, IA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY. WITH THE MJO PROGGED TO BE CYCLING BETWEEN PHASE 1 AND
8, THIS INCREASES THE PROBABILITY THAT THE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE VERY WET PATTERN WE ARE JUST COMPLETING, ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL MAY PROLONG ALREADY HIGH WATER LEVELS ON AREA
RIVERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
SHRA ACROSS FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH 00Z/23 AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
THROUGH 06Z/23 BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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