827
FXUS63 KDVN 230549
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A RESPITE FROM THE RECENT RAINY PATTERN WILL BE SEEN THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE RAINY PATTERN MAY RETURN
LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK INFLUENCED BY TROPICAL
MOISTURE.
- THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND, ESPECIALLY WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, WILL CONTINUE WITH SOME MODERATION BY THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH SUNSET AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS SO SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD BE SEEN AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%) CONFIDENCE ON MODERATING
TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE OF THE WET PATTERN
RETURNING
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH MOISTURE WEST FROM THE NOR'EASTER
ON THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY,
SOME ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT.
STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY FROM SUNDAY ON, THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE SHOWING TROPICAL MOISTURE GETTING PULLED NORTH FROM THE
SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE FROM THE
WESTERN GULF.
THE STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS INITIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN IOWA SO ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR EASTERN IOWA WOULD BE WEST OF A
LINE FROM DUBUQUE, IA TO KEOKUK, IA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES
CONSIDERABLY. WITH THE MJO PROGGED TO BE CYCLING BETWEEN PHASE 1 AND
8, THIS INCREASES THE PROBABILITY THAT THE AREA MAY EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE VERY WET PATTERN WE ARE JUST COMPLETING, ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL MAY PROLONG ALREADY HIGH WATER LEVELS ON AREA
RIVERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECT OF THE LATEST
TAF CYCLE, BUT WILL GO A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH EASTERLY LLVL
FLOW ADVECTING STRATOCU DECKS FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND EVEN
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HOPE WILL BE THAT MOST OF IT STAYS AT
VFR LEVELS, BUT THERE MAY BE PERIOD THIS MORNING OF MVFR
HEIGHTS ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80. THE OTHER THING IS THAT
SEVERAL MODELS EITHER WANT TO ADVECT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/
SPRINKLES IN FROM THE EAST, OR DEVELOP THEM OVERHEAD IN THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. IF THEY OCCUR, THEY SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A
HAMPER AND WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY SFC WINDS OF 5-10 KTS WILL BE A CONSTANT THROUGH THE
CYCLE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...12
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