098
FXUS63 KDVN 240732
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
232 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN WITH SPOTTY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR A LARGER AND
MUCH WETTER SYSTEM TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE COOLER THAN NORMAL TREND INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT THEN MODERATE BACK TO SEASONABLE OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LLVL EASTERLY FLOW UNDER A H85-H75 MB INVERSION WILL CONTINUE TO TRY
AND ADVECT PORTIONS OF A SUBSTANTIAL STRATOCU DECK(ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LOW PORTION OF A GRT LKS/OH RVR VALLEY REX BLOCK) OUT OF IL
AND IN ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. BUT THAT LOW IS
SUPPOSED TO ROLL SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR MORE RIDGING BULGING THIS
WAY FROM THE WEST. WOULD THINK THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CLOUD
BREAKS TODAY, BUT AGAIN CU RULE PARAMETERS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DIURNAL
CU FORMING TO BROKEN COVERAGE LEVELS. WITH A TRAPPING INVERSION IN
MIND, IT APPEARS THAT ALL IN ALL ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. SIMILAR
HIGH TEMPS AS YESTERDAY WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY SFC WIND OF 8-15 MPH. WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE COLD BE SOME
SPITS/SPOTTY SPRINKLES AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ON THE IL SIDE.
TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ACRS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE AND THEN
DIG DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND GRT LKS THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL TRY TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT ALSO BE BATTLING DRY AIR ESPECIALLY IN
THE SUB-H5 MB LAYER TO SATURATE AND TRY TO GET SOME PRECIP ARRIVAL
AT THE SFC. BUT FCST SOUNDINGS AND LOWERING COND P-DEFS DO SHOW THAT
SOME LIGHT RAIN TO EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY ON THE IA/MO SIDE OF THINGS...MOST AREAS THAT GET
MEASURABLE RAIN TO RECEIVE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS BY EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
FRIDAY...BACK TO THE DISCUSSION ABOVE, WILL PROBABLY HAVE SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE WAVE WEAKENS AND DROPS SOUTH ALLOWING OMEGA
BLOCK TO RE-ERECT UP THE MID AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY FOR A PRECIP
LULL PROBABLY INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. SIMILAR TEMP REGIME TO END THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE LATEST TRENDS ON THE MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF WITH A LITTLE MORE PUNCH
AND MOISTURE FEED FROM THE SOUTH WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF
SPREADING SHOWERS ACRS THE AREA SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS THIS WEEKEND, WITH CLOUDS AND THE
PRECIP KEEPING HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S.
THE NEXT MAIN CHANCE FOR RAIN CONTINUES TO CENTER AROUND
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME FRAME THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING A STRONG TROPICAL CONNECTION TO THE SYSTEMS IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC UP INTO THE MIDWEST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALREADY HAS
A MEDIUM TO HIGH (50-70%) PROBABILITY OF RAIN OCCURRING DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE BEING PROGGED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATING A HIGH (>80%) PROBABILITY OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING.
THIS IN THANKS TO A LONGER RANGE INDICATION THAT HIGH PWATS WILL
LOOK TO RELOAD AGAIN NEXT WEEK FOR THAT SYSTEM. THIS SIGNAL WOULD BE
CONSISTENT THE WITH MJO VACILLATING BETWEEN PHASES 8 AND 1 WHICH
CORRELATES TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA. BUT THERE IS
SOME VARIANCE BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS BETWEEN A LARGE PROGRESSIVE
LONGER WAVE TROF SWEEPING ACRS THE MID CONUS, OR A SLOWER CUT-OFF
LOW WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH WOULD BE
THE MORE TROUBLESOME SCENARIO FOR FLOODING IF IT CAN OCCUR ALONG THE
LAT/LON OF THE LOCAL CWA. MUCH WILL CHANGE IN THE MODELING, BUT A
WINDOW TO WATCH FOR NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LLVL EASTERLY FLOW IN A BLOCKED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT A SUBSTANTIAL STRATOCU DECK IN FROM THE EAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY. MOST OF THIS DECK HELD UNDER A H85-H75 MB
INVERSION AND SHOULD BE MAINLY AT VFR LEVELS, BUT THERE MAY BE
BASE LOWERING AT TIMES BELOW 3K FT AGL ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80
THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. SFC WINDS REMAIN A CONSTANT
GENERALLY EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 7-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12/08
AVIATION...12
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