992
FXUS63 KDVN 091244
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
637 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH.
- A DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEEKEND IS AHEAD OF US.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES FROM SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
IMPINGING ON A ELEVATED WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA. THE
LOW LEVEL JET WILL VEER INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS THROUGH 12 UTC FRIDAY WITH POPS CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
MORNING ON FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE EXTENDED
SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHEAST IOWA INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE
SOUTHERLY SHIFT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA BY 18 UTC FRIDAY WITH LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE SURFACE WARM FRONTS LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
WITH AREAS SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG LINE WARMING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 80S AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S IN FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARMER DUE
TO WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, WITH WIDESPREAD LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S IN FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND LOWER
60S ACROSS EASTERN IOWA, NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
THIS WEEKEND...
A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS AHEAD OF US. WARM FRONT WILL HAVE FULLY MOVED
NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA, LEAVING US UNDER DECENT WARM
ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER FROM THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THROUGH FULL
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH MID- UPPER 70S SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON SUNDAY AS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ISAIAS SHIFT TO THE EAST.
NEXT WEEK...
ZONAL FLOW WILL START THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH LLVL FLOW INCREASING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE. MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD, WITH THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MOST (<15% CHANCES). THUS, A LARGELY
DRY FORECAST. AFTER THAT WAVE, WE WILL SEE BRIEF RIDGING PRIOR
TO A STRONG WAVE DEEPENING OVER THE ROCKIES. AS THIS DEEPENS,
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, SHUNTING THE
RIDGE EAST WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE OVERHEAD
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH AHEAD OF THIS
DEEP WAVE. THUS, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE RISE MIDWEEK AND
BEYOND. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE THE THREAT OF STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS, ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE SEEN OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE MODERATE AT BEST
SINCE VISIBILITIES APPEAR TO BE HOVERING AROUND THE VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL, SO TEMPO GROUPS WERE
USED TO CONVEY THESE CHANGING CONDITIONS. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE HIGHER-BASED, SO CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING, THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF WEAK LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP AT DBQ OVERNIGHT AS 35
KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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