370
FXUS63 KDVN 092311
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSEASONABLY MILD WEEKEND IS AHEAD OF US, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING MID-LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WEAK RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW,
WITH THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST. AS THE WEAK RIDGE PASSES EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY, BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP OVERHEAD AS ISAIAS MOVES FARTHER
INLAND AND A WAVE DEEPENS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR WARM ADVECTION INTO THE REGION, WITH A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OVERALL, WE ARE IN FOR A QUIET WEEKEND,
WEATHER-WISE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS, WITH SATURDAY GEARED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS
WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 80 CAN BE EXPECTED
SATURDAY, WITH INCREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS
THROUGH THE DAY. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT HOW WARM SOME
LOCATIONS GET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ASIDE FROM A SOUTHERLY BREEZE
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 20-25 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY, IT
WILL BE A MILD AND PLEASANT FALL DAY. SUNDAY WILL FEATURE DECREASING
CLOUD COVER, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S.
ENJOY THE BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND!
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THE RIDGE THAT STARTED TO BUILD OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY STARTS TO FLATTEN
OUT AT THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, AS A DEEP WAVE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE ROCKIES AND GUIDES WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAVE US WITH UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED DEEP WAVE FORECAST TO EJECT OFF OF THE ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. AT THE START OF THE WEEK, LLVL WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST, RESULTING IN MODERATE WARM ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE SEEN DUE TO LOWER MOISTURE, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST MID
WEEK. AS WAS MENTIONED ABOVE, WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY WILL PASS
OVERHEAD AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE, LARGELY BRINGING A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT AND PASSING CLOUDS. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF UNSEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S FOR MANY, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW-MID 70S TUESDAY BEHIND A PASSING SYSTEM.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE WHEN THE DEEPER WAVE EJECTS OFF OF THE
ROCKIES AND TRACKS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION (35-45+ KT 850 HPA JET) WILL KICK IN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE,
FAVORING INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT. WITH PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE IN PLACE, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SEEN. THE
TIMEFRAME THAT GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTING FOR THE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTIES ON FURTHER DETAILS AT THIS TIME,
ALONG WITH IT BEING TOO SOON TO DETERMINE ANY SEVERE OR FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. THUS, STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER AND CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS, AS WE WILL BE LARGELY BLANKETED IN CLOUDS.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES, GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A SEASONALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT CRASHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK,
BRINGING COOLER AND DRY AIR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
CLEAR SKIES WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD BELOW
20KFT, WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE AT TIMES
SATURDAY AS THE CLOUD SHIELD ALOFT FROM THE LANDFALLING
HURRICANE BRUSHES BY THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL TURN A
BIT MORE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. A LOWER END PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, NEAR DBQ, WITH
SURFACE WINDS SOUTHEAST, AND WINDS ALOFT ARE SOUTHWEST AT
30-40KTS 2K FEET ALOFT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...ERVIN
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