043
FXUS63 KDVN 101116
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE PROLONGED
WARM TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF
AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES DEVELOPING AS THE GROUND CONTINUES TO
DRY OUT.
- A COOL DOWN THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY. THE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF AGRICULTURAL
FIELD FIRES DEVELOPING AS THE GROUND DRIES OUT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF A COOL DOWN
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND BRING
TEMPERATURES MORE IN LINE WITH NORMALS FOR MID-OCTOBER. COMPARED TO
THE WEEKEND, IT WILL FEEL CHILLY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK
AS A TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THE GULF BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND A
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
IN QUESTION BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS SUGGESTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. OUTSIDE
OF SOME HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS BLOWING OFF OF THE REMNANTS OF
WHAT WAS HURRICANE ISAIAS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST, SKIES WILL BE
LARGELY CLEAR. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR CID AND
DBQ (SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS FOR MLI AND BRL).
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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