271
FXUS63 KDVN 110506
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1206 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD
WARMTH MONDAY. THE RISK FOR AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES HAS
DECREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES
(50-70%) SOUTH OF I-80 FOR MEASURABLE RAIN.
- COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH INCREASING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A BEAUTIFUL ALBEIT WARM OCTOBER DAY IS OCCURRING OUTSIDE TODAY,
WITH JUST SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS MOVING
NORTH OVER WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IL. TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY
RISEN INTO THE LOW 80S AREA-WIDE AS OF 1PM, MUCH FASTER THAN
MOST MODELS HAD TODAY. OUR 18Z DVN SOUNDING SAMPLED 16.6C
AT 850MB, WHICH WAS 1.4 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS TO OCCASIONALLY GUST AROUND 20 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE TO RESULT IN
HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S FOR SOME. THIS IS NOT THAT FAR OFF
FROM RECORD HIGHS AT MLI/BRL AND HAVE INCLUDED THESE IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR REFERENCE. SOUTH WINDS AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN WAA TO KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOWS ONLY LOW TO MID 50S.
SUNDAY-MONDAY
POST TROPICAL ISAIAS TO PUSH EAST OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY,
WITH A BROAD RIDGE SETTING UP SHOP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A
WEAK SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM NE INTO SOUTHEAST MN WITH THE CWA
FULLY ENGULFED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF IT. 850MB TEMPS ARE
PROGGED SIMILAR TO TODAY FOR SUNDAY, INCREASING TO AN IMPRESSIVE
22C ON MONDAY; A RECORD DAILY MAX VALUE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
WARMEST 850MB TEMP FOR OCTOBER! THE WARMEST VALUE WAS 22.2C ON
THE 12Z OCT 10TH 2021 SOUNDING PER SPC CLIMATOLOGY. NEAR RECORD
TEMPS ARE FORECAST. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS. THE NBM
AND FRANKLY MOST MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO COLD LATELY LIKELY
ATTRIBUTED TO MODEL TDS TOO HIGH. SOMETHING TO WATCH IN LATER
FORECAST IS JUST HOW HIGH TDS GET FOR MONDAY WHICH COULD
ADVERSELY AFFECT THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WE WILL EITHER BE
NOTICEABLY HUMID AND FALL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS MONDAY OR LESS
HUMID AND TIE/BREAK RECORD RECORD HIGHS. I'M READY FOR TRUE FALL
WEATHER WITH NO MOSQUITOS, NOT RECORD HIGHS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MAIN FOCUS AFTER COLUMBUS DAY WILL BE ON RAIN CHANCES MID-WEEK AND A
TRANSITION TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND AND PERHAPS
SOME FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL.
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH THE NBM SHOWING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTHWEST IL. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND IT
MAY END UP BEING JUST A DRY FROPA. A 1023 MB SFC HIGH TO BUILD INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT BRINGING DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF TUESDAY AND AT LEAST PART OF WEDNESDAY.
DESPITE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPS THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY DRY FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE IS ALSO SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN
AVAILIBLE MOISTURE, STRENGTH OF WAA, AND FORCING ALONG AN 850MB
THETA-E GRADIENT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS LOW AND
PERHAPS INCLUDING SOME REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE SIMON. WHERE
THIS WAVE GOES WILL LARGELY BE DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. IN
ANY CASE, THIS PERIOD TO BRING HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS
(40-60%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. WHILE
NBM/ENS/GEFS 24HR PROBABILITIES FOR >0.10" QPF ENDING 00Z FRI
HAVE DECREASED, THEY ARE STILL IN THE 55-80% RANGE (HIGHEST
VALUES ON THE GEFS AND SOUTH OF I-80). THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER/PRECIP BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE NUMBERS, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S/LOW 70S.
FRIDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME RANGE, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. THE GFS/GEFS WANT TO EJECT THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW
FASTER THAN THE ECMWF/ENS AND PHASE IT WITH ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER
LOW MOVING EAST OVER CANADA. THE RESULT WOULD BRING A COLDER
AIRMASS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LEADING TO A FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE AIGEFS AND ECMWF AFIS SOLUTIONS
ARE NOT AS COLD, BUT WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE GFS/GEFS AND WILL
BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN LATER RUNS. THE 00Z LREF 100 MEMBER
ENSEMBLE HAS 56% OF ITS MEMBERS, WITH A LOW TEMP OF 40 DEGREES
OR LOWER FOR DBQ ON SATURDAY.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS LARGELY A DRY PATTERN
TAKING SHAPE FOR THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER WITH VERY LOW PROBABILITIES
OF QPF >0.10". THE LATEST CPC DAY 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK
SHOWS GREATER THAN 75% COMBINED PROBABILITY OF NEAR/BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE OCT 17TH-23RD TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WINDS TO REMAIN 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY. AFTER
14Z/11 THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BREAK AND ALLOW GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS TO DEVELOP. AFTER 00Z/12 WINDS WILL AGAIN BE UNDER 10
KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 12:
KBRL: 86/2024
KCID: 88/1995
KDBQ: 85/1886
KMLI: 87/1947
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 12:
KDBQ: 64/1997
KMLI: 68/1997
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...GROSS
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