892
FXUS63 KDVN 111733
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1233 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MAY CHALLENGE
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
- A COOL DOWN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
CHALLENGED, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR
SPECIFIC INFORMATION.
A DOWNSIDE TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELEVATED RISK FOR AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES ON
MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95%) OF A COOL DOWN. MEDIUM (40-60%)
CONFIDENCE REGARDING RAIN CHANCES.
A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THE GULF AND THE REMNANTS OF
RACHEL WILL BRING SURGES OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA; THE FIRST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE SECOND AROUND THURSDAY.
TRENDS WITH THE MODELS ARE SHUNTING THE FIRST SURGE OF MOISTURE TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DUE TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT
OCCURRED MONDAY NIGHT. THUS THERE IS A VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE MOISTURE SURGE CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY IS STRONGER SO THIS MAY
END UP BEING THE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A
55-70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE WITH THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES, THE PROSPECTS FOR THE FIRST FROST APPEAR TO
BE ON THE INCREASE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 12/00-03Z, AT WHICH POINT HIGH CLOUDS WILL
MOVE IN. OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL BE LLWS POTENTIAL
FROM AFTER 12/03-06Z TO 12/12-13Z AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS
NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS ATOP AN INVERSION LAYER. WHILE THERE IS
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHICH TERMINALS MAY BE AFFECTED, ESPECIALLY AT
MLI/BRL, HAVE INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE AT CID DUE TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE. DBQ WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS ISSUANCE DUE TO MARGINAL
LLWS AND LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-
15 KTS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS AFTER 12/16Z.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCTOBER 11TH...
BURLINGTON, IA......88 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS, IA....88 IN 1962
DUBUQUE, IA.........85 IN 1928 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
MOLINE, IL..........88 IN 1962
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR OCTOBER 12TH...
DUBUQUE, IA.........64 IN 1997
MOLINE, IL..........68 IN 1997
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCTOBER 12TH...
BURLINGTON, IA......86 IN 2024 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
CEDAR RAPIDS, IA....88 IN 1995
DUBUQUE, IA.........86 IN 1886
MOLINE, IL..........87 IN 1947
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
CLIMATE...GROSS/08
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