350
FXUS63 KDVN 120628
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
128 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MAY CHALLENGE
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES.
- TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL BE SEEN THIS WEEK; ONE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE SECOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WILL BE SEEN THE SECOND OF THE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY AFTER THURSDAY. THE RISK OF FROST CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY RISKS
LOOK TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>97%) OF A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY WILL BE WINDY AND QUITE CHILLY. IN SPITE OF THE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK OF AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
MARGINAL LLWS OF 30 KNOTS AROUND 1.5 KFT AGL CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH 13Z/12. AFTER 14Z/12 THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BREAK
ALLOWING GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP. AFTER SUNSET THE
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL RE-DEVELOP DROPPING WINDS TO AROUND 10
KNOTS. HOWEVER, A STRONGER LLWS OF 40 KNOTS AROUND 1.5 KFT AGL
WILL DEVELOP.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR OCTOBER 12TH...
DUBUQUE, IA.........64 IN 1997
MOLINE, IL..........68 IN 1997
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCTOBER 12TH...
BURLINGTON, IA......86 IN 2024 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
CEDAR RAPIDS, IA....88 IN 1995
DUBUQUE, IA.........86 IN 1886
MOLINE, IL..........87 IN 1947
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR OCTOBER 13TH...
DUBUQUE, IA.........65 IN 1920
MOLINE, IL..........68 IN 1975
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCTOBER 13TH...
BURLINGTON, IA......95 IN 1899
CEDAR RAPIDS, IA....89 IN 1975
DUBUQUE, IA.........85 IN 1975
MOLINE, IL..........90 IN 1975
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08
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