782
FXUS63 KDVN 121124
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
624 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MAY CHALLENGE
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES.
- TWO ROUNDS OF RAIN WILL BE SEEN THIS WEEK; ONE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THE SECOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN WILL BE SEEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE RISK OF FROST CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW, WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES.
A WEAK STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A
MARGINAL RISK, OR LEVEL 1 OF 5, FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS. THE
PRIMARY RISKS LOOK TO BE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>97%) OF A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN
THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIKELY
CHANCES (70-90 PERCENT) OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND USHER IN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY WILL BE WINDY AND QUITE CHILLY. IN SPITE OF THE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, THE STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
RISK OF AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR THIS SET CONTINUES TO BE ON STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, LEADING TO MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS FOR CID AND BRL. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES,
WINDS SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AT THE SURFACE, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 TO 25 KNOTS. AFTER SUNSET, THE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURE
INVERSION WILL RE-DEVELOP, LEADING TO ANOTHER PERIOD OF LLWS
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE STRONGER COMPARED TO THE LLWS FROM THIS
MORNING - AROUND 40 KNOTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR OCTOBER 12TH...
DUBUQUE, IA.........64 IN 1997
MOLINE, IL..........68 IN 1997
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCTOBER 12TH...
BURLINGTON, IA......86 IN 2024 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
CEDAR RAPIDS, IA....88 IN 1995
DUBUQUE, IA.........86 IN 1886
MOLINE, IL..........87 IN 1947
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR OCTOBER 13TH...
DUBUQUE, IA.........65 IN 1920
MOLINE, IL..........68 IN 1975
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCTOBER 13TH...
BURLINGTON, IA......95 IN 1899
CEDAR RAPIDS, IA....89 IN 1975
DUBUQUE, IA.........85 IN 1975
MOLINE, IL..........90 IN 1975
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
CLIMATE...08
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