339
FXUS63 KDVN 130642
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
142 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. PRIMARY RISKS ARE HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PROBABILITY OF FROST FRIDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS NOW AT 60-70%.
- A WARM-UP COMMENCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT, HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE
PRIMARY RISKS.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>98%) OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. PROBABILITY OF FROST FRIDAY NIGHT
HAS INCREASED TO 60-70%.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH
THE GULF AND MOISTURE COMING OFF OF SIMON WILL INCREASE PWATS INTO
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THESE PWAT VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
MEETING OR EXCEEDING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THUS
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A GIVEN. THE AREA CURRENTLY FAVORED FOR THE HEAVY
RAIN IS SOUTH OF I-80.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ATOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE 30-35 KNOTS
WHICH WOULD GIVE WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH ON FRIDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE
NEGATIVE DELTA ON TEMPERATURES, THE PROBABILITY OF FROST HAS
INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT. HEADLINES FOR FROST ARE EXPECTED LATER
IN THE WEEK.
A WARM-UP COMMENCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
COOL FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
THROUGH 12Z/13 ENDING THE LLWS RISK BUT MAY INDUCE POCKETS OF
MVFR CIGS. POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION
THROUGH 19Z/13 PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. AFTER 00Z/14
MOISTURE OVER- RUNNING THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW
RAIN TO DEVELOP WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WITH CIGS SLOWLY LOWERING AND
BECOMING MVFR.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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