672
FXUS63 KDVN 131135
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT. PRIMARY RISKS ARE HAIL AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PROBABILITY OF FROST FRIDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND IS NOW AT 60-70%.
- A WARM-UP COMMENCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT, HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THE
PRIMARY RISKS.
RAIN WILL TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY WITH PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>98%) OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. PROBABILITY OF FROST FRIDAY NIGHT
HAS INCREASED TO 60-70%.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH
THE GULF AND MOISTURE COMING OFF OF SIMON WILL INCREASE PWATS INTO
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THESE PWAT VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
MEETING OR EXCEEDING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THUS
HEAVY RAINFALL IS A GIVEN. THE AREA CURRENTLY FAVORED FOR THE HEAVY
RAIN IS SOUTH OF I-80.
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ATOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE 30-35 KNOTS
WHICH WOULD GIVE WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH ON FRIDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE
NEGATIVE DELTA ON TEMPERATURES, THE PROBABILITY OF FROST HAS
INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT. HEADLINES FOR FROST ARE EXPECTED LATER
IN THE WEEK.
A WARM-UP COMMENCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS OR SO. A SLOW-MOVING FRONT HAS BROUGHT AN MVFR LOW STRATUS
DECK OVER EASTERN IOWA, ALONG WITH A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS,
ARCHING JUST EAST OF KGGI SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KCNC. THESE STORMS
HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST, WITH A GOOD BIT OF LIGHTNING
WITH THEM. CID MIGHT BE GLANCED BY THEM, BUT IF THESE STORMS CAN
HOLD TOGETHER, MLI APPEARS TO BE MOST IN LINE TO SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF STORMS LATER THIS MORNING. LOCALLY MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOPS THIS EVENING. CID, MLI, AND BRL SHOULD ALL
GET IN ON THE STORMS, WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
UNDER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING
OF STORMS TONIGHT REMAINS LOW, SO USED PROB30 GROUPS WHEN
APPROPRIATE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page