144
FXUS63 KDVN 131923
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
223 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHTNING AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.
- SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOL NIGHTS. THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR FROST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
SURFACE FRONT THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS/STORMS TO PARTS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING HAS STALLED OUT OVER OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH
TONIGHT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE WEAK
UPPER RIDGE PASS EAST OF THE AREA, INDUCING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY WILL PASS OVERHEAD,
WITH A 25-30 KT LLJ PUMPING INTO THE AREA, PROVIDING THE
NECESSARY FORCING FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR (60-80%), BUT 20-40%
POPS WILL REMAIN TOWARDS TO THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR AND LOWER
CHANCES NORTH. TIMING FOR THIS WILL BE AFTER SUNSET, LASTING
UNTIL THE MORNING COMMUTE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHWAY 34
CORRIDOR AND AREAS SOUTH. A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD
INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND
40-50 KTS AND CAPE UPWARDS TO 1000-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH,
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT AND COVERAGE.
COMPARED TO RECENT MODEL RUNS, COVERAGE AND STORM CHANCES HAVE
TRENDED DOWN AND SOUTH IN OUR AREA, OWING TO THE STALLED/SLOW-
MOVING BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA. OVERALL, THE THREAT
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOWER, WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING
MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. BETTER CHANCES TO SEE AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LARGELY BE <0.50" FOR MOST, WITH SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS >0.50" POSSIBLE.
AFTER THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE, MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
OUT OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE A 20-30% CHANCE FOR ANY REMAINING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS PRIOR TO NOON FOR AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>98%) OF
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
PROBABILITY OF FROST FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS AROUND 60-70%.
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH
THE GULF AND MOISTURE COMING OFF OF SIMON WILL INCREASE PWATS INTO
THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE. THESE PWAT VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
MEETING OR EXCEEDING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR OCTOBER 15TH. THUS
HEAVIER AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREAS CURRENTLY
FAVORED FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL ARE SOUTH OF I-80, WHERE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING CAN BE FOUND. OVERALL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN <1.00", WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 IN A 30-50% CHANCE OF SEEING AN
INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WINDS ATOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE 30-35 KNOTS, WHICH
WOULD GIVE WIND GUSTS TO AT LEAST 35 MPH ON FRIDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO WATCH THIS FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
SEEN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AM, WITH GRADUAL
DECREASES IN SPEEDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THE
NEGATIVE DELTA ON TEMPERATURES, THE PROBABILITY OF FROST HAS
INCREASED TO 60-70 PERCENT. HEADLINES FOR FROST ARE POSSIBLE
LATER IN THE WEEK.
A GRADUAL WARM-UP COMMENCES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
LARGELY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
INTO THE EVENING. AFTER 03Z, WE WILL START TO SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP, WITH BEST CHANCES AT MLI/BRL, BUT CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AT CID. ALTHOUGH, THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND COVERAGE FOR ALL LOCATIONS. THUS,
OPTED TO MESSAGE THROUGH PROB30S AT THIS TIME WITH REDUCED VIS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. BRL WILL HAVE HIGHER CHANCES OF SEEING
CIGS DROP BETWEEN 1500-3000 FT, ESPECIALLY WHEN STORMING.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH LARGELY A NORTHWEST COMPONENT. AFTER 03Z, WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMINDER OF
TONIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL/08
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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