744
FXUS63 KDVN 140634
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
134 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
FROST IS A NEAR CERTAINTY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT 20-30 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A
TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THE GULF AND MOISTURE COMING OFF OF SIMON
WILL PUSH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR OCTOBER 15TH. HEAVY RAIN IS A GIVEN WITH
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADS LIKELY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH FROST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF A
FREEZE IS AT 20-30 PERCENT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW A TROP FOLD MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS. THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE TROP FOLD WILL BE DOWN TO 400-500 MB BUT
SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TROP FOLD AS SUB 500 MB.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES.
CURRENTLY THAT PROBABILITY IS AT 20-30 PERCENT.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A NEAR CERTAINTY OF FROST TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY
TO HOW COLD IT WILL GET. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
ALSO THERE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. RIGHT NOW THE
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS AT 20-30 PERCENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 12Z/14. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR. MVFR CIGS IN MISSOURI WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO EASTERN
IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER 18Z/14. MORE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 03Z/15.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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