178
FXUS63 KDVN 141135
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
FROST IS A NEAR CERTAINTY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT 20-30 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A
TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THE GULF AND MOISTURE COMING OFF OF SIMON
WILL PUSH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR OCTOBER 15TH. HEAVY RAIN IS A GIVEN WITH
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADS LIKELY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH FROST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF A
FREEZE IS AT 20-30 PERCENT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW A TROP FOLD MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS. THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE TROP FOLD WILL BE DOWN TO 400-500 MB BUT
SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TROP FOLD AS SUB 500 MB.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES.
CURRENTLY THAT PROBABILITY IS AT 20-30 PERCENT.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A NEAR CERTAINTY OF FROST TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY
TO HOW COLD IT WILL GET. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
ALSO THERE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. RIGHT NOW THE
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS AT 20-30 PERCENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE AREA AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY IMPACT BRL BETWEEN 12-13Z,
BUT HIGH-END MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WOULD BE THE ONLY
IMPACT TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS. WE ARE KEEPING AN EYE ON AN MVFR
STRATUS DECK THAT'S DIVING SOUTHWARD OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
BASED ON 925MB RH PROGS FROM THE RAP MODEL, WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION OF THE STRATUS, IT HAS IT
DISSIPATING JUST NORTH OF DBQ AND CID. HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN CASE WE
NEED TO MAKE AMENDMENTS FOR CID AND DBQ.
MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BRL THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THIS MVFR DECK SHOULD EXPAND NORTHERN
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT WILL MOVE
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS
ARE EXPECTED, WITH IFR CIGS AFTER 12Z.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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