782
FXUS63 KDVN 141746
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
FROST IS A NEAR CERTAINTY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT 20-30 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. A
TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THE GULF AND MOISTURE COMING OFF OF SIMON
WILL PUSH PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY TO THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR OCTOBER 15TH. HEAVY RAIN IS A GIVEN WITH
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ROADS LIKELY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH FROST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF A
FREEZE IS AT 20-30 PERCENT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MID-DAY FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW A TROP FOLD MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS. THE
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THE TROP FOLD WILL BE DOWN TO 400-500 MB BUT
SOME SOLUTIONS HAVE THE TROP FOLD AS SUB 500 MB.
REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES.
CURRENTLY THAT PROBABILITY IS AT 20-30 PERCENT.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS A NEAR CERTAINTY OF FROST TO THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE KEY
TO HOW COLD IT WILL GET. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS
ALSO THERE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. RIGHT NOW THE
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS AT 20-30 PERCENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT AND BEYOND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND IMPACTS THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. REDUCTIONS IN CIGS WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST IMPACT
FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH CIGS DROPPING BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT
PRIOR TO 12Z, THEN DECREASING TO <1000 FT FOR MOST LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 12-16Z. WE WILL ALSO SEE REDUCTIONS IN VIS, LARGELY
BETWEEN 3-5 SM, BUT LOWER VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL
START THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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