436
FXUS63 KDVN 151128
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
628 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- FROST IS A CERTAINTY ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 ARE NOW 50-60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
DRY EASTERLY FLOW IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF RAIN. THE LIFT IS
STRONG SO ONCE RAIN BEGINS DEVELOPING THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT TURNING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL MODELS SHOW A TROP FOLD MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SAID FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 45
MPH. THE PROBABILITIES OF WIND HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY AT 25-30
PERCENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY OF FROST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN FROST OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL PROBABILITIES OF A LIGHT FREEZE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. FREEZE PROBABILITIES FOR
THOSE AREAS ARE NOW 50-60 PERCENT.
FROST HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZE HEADLINES.
FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. UNLIKE FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE ISOLATED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MESSY AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY, AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUICKLY
EXITS BY THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF IT, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (80-100%
CHANCES) AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION. LARGELY MVFR CEILINGS WILL TRANSITION TO IFR
CEILINGS, ALONG WITH MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE HIGH, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING OF TRANSITION STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE FOR A TIME BEFORE TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY IN ITS WAKE. AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT, A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO STRENGTHENING WINDS THIS EVENING
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KNOTS PRIOR
TO 12Z FRIDAY (EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 12Z).
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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