050
FXUS63 KDVN 151723
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1223 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
BRINGING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- FROST IS A CERTAINTY ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 ARE NOW 50-60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
DRY EASTERLY FLOW IS DELAYING THE ONSET OF RAIN. THE LIFT IS
STRONG SO ONCE RAIN BEGINS DEVELOPING THE AREAL COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT TURNING
WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL MODELS SHOW A TROP FOLD MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SAID FEATURE WILL
RESULT IN VERY WINDY CONDITIONS FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 45
MPH. THE PROBABILITIES OF WIND HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY AT 25-30
PERCENT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY OF FROST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN FROST OCCURRING FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL PROBABILITIES OF A LIGHT FREEZE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. FREEZE PROBABILITIES FOR
THOSE AREAS ARE NOW 50-60 PERCENT.
FROST HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOR THE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZE HEADLINES.
FROST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. UNLIKE FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE ISOLATED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A BROAD STORM SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN TO A LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR, WHILE A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE
RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS
BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 FT, AND VISIBILITY VARIABLE 1 TO 5 MILES IN
RAIN AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND 00Z, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST
AND GREATLY INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KTS, GUSTING TO 30 TO
35 KTS, LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE COLD, STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY MVFR CIGS, AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, DRY AIR
ARRIVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD
COVER, OR AT LEAST ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN
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