575
FXUS63 KDVN 151903
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
203 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN THE SOUTH. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
WINDY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- FROST IS A CERTAINTY ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE PROBABILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 ARE NOW 40-60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE STORMS SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST, AT LEAST THROUGH NOON, HAS BEEN
NOTED BY BOTH AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, AND BY LOCATIONS WHERE
RAINS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT AND SHOWERY. OUR CWA IS ON THE LIGHTER
END OF THAT SCALE, LARGELY DUE TO DRY MID LEVEL AIR, WHICH IS
QUICKLY FILLING IN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN
ELONGATED FROM OKLAHOMA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA, RESULTING IN A A
CHALLENGING PLACEMENT OF THE RAIN SHOWERS, DESPITE RATHER MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND WARM ADVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA. THOSE MOIST LOW LEVELS,
HAVE CREATED EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER, AS WELL A POOR VISIBILITIES
IN OUR REGION, AND THAT HAS HELPED KEEP THE WARM SECTOR FROM WORKING
NORTHWARD, AND WITH THAT, THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY, ARE
GOING TO BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA, INTO CENTRAL MO, AND SOUTHERN IL. I
HAVE ADDED FOG TO OUR FORECAST GRIDS IN THE HOURS OF THE LOW PASSING
BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SPS BEING ISSUED FOR LOW
VISIBILITY.
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND STREAM
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, AS LOW
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES FROM THE "DOUBLE BARRELED" LOW IN IT'S
CURRENT STATE, TO ONE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS, WHILE
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HEADS SOUTHEAST CREATING A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN COLD ADVECTION OVER OUR AREA FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT, AT
THE TOP OF THE CWA MIXED LAYER ARE FORECAST FROM 06Z THROUGH 15Z
FRIDAY, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING 40 KTS ABOUT 3KFT ALOFT. AT A
TYPICAL 80% SURFACE VERIFICATION OF THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER,
WE SHOULD EXPECT MOST WINDS GUSTS TONIGHT IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE, WITH A FEW ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AT IT'S
PEAK. I THINK THE BEST WAY FORWARD IS TO KEEP THE FORECAST BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS, WHILE ALSO SUPPORTING MESSAGING ON THE
NORTHWEST WIND AS A HAZARD TONIGHT.
FOLLOWING A BLUSTERY, WINDY FRIDAY, LARGELY UNDER CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS, THE NEXT QUESTION IS WHETHER WE FREEZE OR FROST FRIDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT DURING THE EVENING, AND
IF WINDS CAN DECREASE UNDER 5 MPH, WE COULD SEE SOME NEAR 32
DEGREE TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH HALF, HOWEVER, THAT POSSIBILITY
REMAINS AROUND 50-60%, OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR, WITH
MOST SPOTS SEEING VALUES MORE TYPICAL FOR A FROST ADVISORY. AT
THIS STAGE OF THE GAME, OFFICES ARE COLLABORATING FREEZE WATCHES
WHICH MAY BE CONVERTED TO FREEZE WARNINGS OR FROST ADVISORIES.
OUR OFFICE WILL BE GOING WITH A FREEZE WATCH FOR AREAS NORTHWEST
OF KEOKUK COUNTY THROUGH CARROLL COUNTY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE REGION STARTING SUNDAY. THIS LARGE SYNOPTIC MOVEMENT WILL
BRING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE
REGION, AND WITH THAT, TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
THIS RATHER HIGH CONFIDENCE WARMER THAN NORMAL HAS BEEN SUPPORTED BY
CPC OUTLOOKS FOR SEVERAL DAYS, AND MIGHT APPEAR TO SOME AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF HEAT, BUT IN THIS CASE, WE'RE LOOKING AT PLEASANT WEATHER,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
ANY CLOUD COVER OR PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN SILENT IN THE WEEK
AHEAD, AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT MID WEEK. ONCE THAT PATTERN
BREAKS DOWN, WHICH MAY NOT BE UNTIL THE WEEKEND OR BEYOND, DRY
WEATHER SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE OF THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A BROAD STORM SYSTEM WILL TIGHTEN TO A LOW PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL OCCUR, WHILE A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS. THE
RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS
BETWEEN 400 AND 1000 FT, AND VISIBILITY VARIABLE 1 TO 5 MILES IN
RAIN AND FOG THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS THE LOW MOVES
TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AROUND 00Z, WINDS WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST
AND GREATLY INCREASE TO SUSTAINED 15 TO 20 KTS, GUSTING TO 30 TO
35 KTS, LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE COLD, STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MAINLY MVFR CIGS, AND POSSIBLY SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, DRY AIR
ARRIVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP THE CLOUD
COVER, OR AT LEAST ALLOW CIGS TO LIFT ABOVE MVFR LEVELS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>066-076.
IL...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ILZ001-002-007.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...ERVIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page