108
FXUS63 KEAX 150242
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
842 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
* QUIET, WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHS REBOUND INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST FRI/SAT
* BREEZY SATURDAY - GUSTING 25-30+ MPH
* APPRECIABLE RAIN RETURNS LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
- SUNDAY (EVENING), <40%
- MONDAY (MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAY), >90%
- PRIMARILY SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDER
- WIDESPREAD 0.50" TO 1.25"+, GREATEST N/NW
* COLDER MID-WEEK ONWARD, UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION
- COLDEST OF SEASON, SNOW POSSIBLE!
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
ADJUSTED DENSE FOG ADVISORY SLIGHTLY EAST AND LATER IN TIME BASED
ON LATEST CAM TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAILED AND CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY, EVEN WITH PESKY STRATUS STICKING AROUND TO THE EAST.
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STRATUS
CONTINUES WITH ONLY THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA UNDER
SUBSTANTIAL SKY COVER AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
THAT CLEARING, WITH OTHER INGREDIENTS, WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL. CONSIDER RECENT RAINS, THE RECENT
CLOUD COVER, AND ENCROACHING SURFACE RIDGE IN CONJUNCTION WITH CLEAR
SKIES, AND THE TABLE APPEARS SET FOR POTENTIAL FOG AND DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HI-RES GUIDANCE SIGNALS THIS, WITH MOST PERSISTENT
BROADLY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN MISSOURI WHERE
MENTIONED CONDITIONS MOST READILY OVERLAP. TO THAT END, COORDINATION
WITH LSX/SGF RESULTED IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO LIMIT TO HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREA, WITH IDEA
OF EXPANSION GENERALLY PREFERRED OVER CANCELLATIONS. AREAS TO THE
WEST OF THE EXISTING ADVISORY AREA MAY VERY WELL SEE SOME DEGREE OF
FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY LOW LYING AREAS, BUT DENSE FOG AREAL
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED BY EXTREMELY SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES
COMPARED TO AREAS WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA. WITH ANTICIPATED LOWS IN
THE MID-30S/WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF FREEZING, ELEVATED SURFACES
MAY EXPERIENCE FREEZING FOG, BUT ROADWAY ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED
WITH WARM GROUND/SUB SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
ASIDE FROM THE FOG, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET NOW INTO SATURDAY
WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING AND TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING EASTWARD AS WELL, SOUTHERLY FLOW
TOO WILL HELP BOOST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES, KEEPING THE ABOVE
NORMAL TREND FOR THIS SEASON. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S (N/NE) TO MID 60S (SW) EACH OF FRI/SAT.
SATURDAY WILL SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS 25-30+ MPH) THOUGH
AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GETS SHUNTED EAST IN RESPONSE TO
WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING AND EJECTING WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESULT AND TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS, AS WELL
AS DROP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL, HOWEVER SOUNDING ARE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH POTENTIAL WARM
LAYER ABOVE MOISTURE RETURN AND BULK OF LIFT SITUATED NORTHWARD INTO
IOWA. NBM CAME IN DRY, AND DO NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO ALTER AT THIS
TIME. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT/LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES...
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO HAMMER HOME
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING TO RETURN TO THE WIDER AREA LATER
SUNDAY THOROUGH MONDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE SW CONUS INTO
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFTS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
NORTHEASTWARD. STRONG/SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN (PWATS TO AROUND
1.5") AND LIFT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT REGION OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BLANKET RAIN. SYSTEM TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS ARE SEEN, CURRENTLY FAVORING NW MISSOURI WITH CORE TRACK
OVER NE KANSAS/SE NEBRASKA/SW IOWA. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS AROUND 0.50"
(S/SE) TO 1.25"+ (NW) APPEAR REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
AFTER MONDAY, UNCERTAINTY/MODEL DIVERGENCE RAMPS UP AS THEY TRY TO
RESOLVE BLOCKING DOWNSTREAM OF CONUS AND NEXT WESTERN TROUGH
EVOLUTION. THIS PROVIDES SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND EVOLUTION FOR TUESDAY ONWARD, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
FIRST SNOWS (NOT NECESSARILY ACCUMULATIONS) OF THE YEAR. WHAT DOES
LOOK INCREASINGLY CERTAIN THOUGH ARE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON WITH MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE POINTING IN THAT DIRECTION, SUCH AS
NBM PROBABILITIES OF HIGHS <50 DEG F 70-80+% BY THURSDAY AND LOWS
<30 DEG F 60-70+% BY FRIDAY MORNING. NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS THAT
FAR OUT ARE UPWARDS OF 8-10+ DEGREES FOR BOTH MAX AND MIN, SO
TAKEAWAY IS LARGELY THAT IT WILL BE COLD OR COLDER VS COLD OR WARM.
REGARDLESS... JUST BEEN A MATTER OF TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 PM CST THU NOV 14 2024
REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 MAY LEAD TO DENSE
FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FARTHER WEST, CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
WITH WINDS SWITCHING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAINING LIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MOZ007-008-
016-017-024-025-032-033-039-040-046.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...HAYES
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...BT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page