422
FXUS63 KEAX 160930
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 25-30 MPH EXPECTED TODAY. MORE GUSTY
WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NE KS AND NW MO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
- FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SOAKING RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. AROUND 1.5-2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. A STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- TEMPERATURES PLUNGE PAST NORMAL INTO THE 40S WITH LOWS
POTENTIALLY IN THE 20S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THINGS ARE STARTING TO PIECE THEMSELVES TOGETHER. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS TWO LARGE WAVES ACROSS THE CONUS, A TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. THESE ARE GOING TO PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE
IN THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HEMISPHERIC UPPER LEVEL
PATTERNS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BLOCK ACROSS NE CANADA. THIS WILL
SLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE'S EASTWARD MOVEMENT. AS THE WESTERN LARGE
SCALE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND PROGRESS EASTWARD, IT WILL FACE
SIGNIFICANT RESISTANCE FROM THE HIGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN
GUSTY WINDS TODAY AROUND 25-30 MPH. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. MORE NOTABLY WILL BE THE ADVECTION
OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, THIS KEEPS RELATIVE HUMIDITY ELEVATED
WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH RECENT RAINS LOWERS OVERALL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THAT SAID, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE BEST TO NOT BURN TODAY.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWS GOOD SATURATION AND ASCENT AT 295K AHEAD
OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH MAY CATALYZE SOME SHOWERS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS FAR NE KS AND NW MO.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED LATE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. A CYCLONE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO ENTERS SW TX
BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AND PROCEEDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR. BETWEEN THE TROUGHS JET STREAK AND A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE
FROM THE EASTERN CONUS HIGH, MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE CENTER OF
THE COUNTRY REACHES HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LEVELS. PWAT VALUES SOAR INTO
THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE MORE COMMON IN THE SPRING AND SUMMER.
FRONTOGENESIS PROCEEDS QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM COMPRESSES BETWEEN A
LARGE COOL AIR MASS TO THE WEST AND THE BERMUDA HIGH AND BLOCKING
PATTERN TO THE EAST. THIS COMPRESSION COMBINED WITH FRONTOGENESIS
AND MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE MOISTURE TRANSPORT RESULTS IN WIDE
SPREAD RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AMBIENT WINDS. 40+ MPH
GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE. PRIMARY IMPACTS ARE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS. QPF SHOWS AROUND 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE REGION WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SITS
AROUND 1.8-2.8 INCHES PER 1 AND 6 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. ANY FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BE LIMITED TO EFFICIENT DOWNPOURS PUTTING DOWN NEARLY
2 INCHES OF RAIN PER HOUR. SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE;
HOWEVER, SUSTAINING THOSE RAIN RATES FOR A FULL HOUR IS UNLIKELY.
WITH 40 MPH AMBIENT GUSTS ANTICIPATED, THAT DOES BRING UP THE
QUESTION ABOUT THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AT THIS TIME, THE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW BUT NOT ZERO. MOST OF IT WILL HINGE ON WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE AND WHEN. RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS A SMALL WINDOW
OF >500 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN MO MONDAY EVENING WHICH COULD
BE ENOUGH TO PUSH ISOLATED STORMS ABOVE SEVERE THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER,
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY LOOKS
TO BE MUCH SMALLER GEOGRAPHICALLY AND FLUCTUATE FROM THE WICHITA
METRO TO THE KC METRO DEPENDING ON RUN. THIS INSTABILITY IS
IMPERATIVE TO THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS.
THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD IS DAMAGING WINDS. 40+ KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR
AND 300-600 M2/S2 HELICITY DO DRAW SUSPICION FOR TORNADIC POTENTIAL;
HOWEVER, EXPECTED LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING AND LOWERED INSTABILITY
QUELLS THOSE CONCERNS. LAPSE RATES LOOK FAIRLY MEAGER LIMITING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL. A FEW UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE TRACK OF IT BEING THE LEADING CONTRIBUTOR. A SHIFT
OF A FEW MILES TO THE WEST OR EAST WILL GREATLY AFFECT ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND THE PROSPECTS FOR NOTABLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SOAKER THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY.
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN
DESCENDING BACK TOWARD SEASONAL EXPECTATIONS. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS INTERIOR MO. EARLIER MODELS WERE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION; HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED
OFF LOWERING SNOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR MO TO UNDER 20
PERCENT. WEDNESDAY AM LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S. WHILE A FEW
SNOWFLAKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT, NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE RAMPS UP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. 40-45 KNOT 850MB FLOW MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE YIELDING
THE POTENTIAL FOR 40-45 MPH WINDS. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL BE A
BRISK BREEZE AS TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
30S BY NIGHTFALL. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE ESTABLISHES SWIFT H500 NW FLOW
ECHOED AT H850 TRANSPORTING COOL CANADIAN AIR POTENTIALLY DIPPING
LOWS INTO THE 20S NEXT WEEKEND. WINTER IS APPROACHING...
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2024
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ON SATURDAY. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AFTER 21Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE AT THIS POINT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ~1500 FEET AGL, BUT IT
IS MARGINAL SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...BT
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