299
FXUS63 KEAX 162333
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
533 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW END SEVERE AND FLOOD RISK EXISTS ON MONDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- FIRST HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FOR SOME OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THIS AFTERNOON THE AREA IS WEDGED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AND, TO THE WEST AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ARE GUSTING TO 20-30MPH.
THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 290K-300K SURFACE IS ALLOWING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIP NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
BY TONIGHT. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW END
SEVERE CHANCE WILL EXIST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE VERY
STRONG WILL THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED WITH EVEN THE MORE ROBUST MODELS ADVERTISING 200-300J/KG
OF MUCAPE. HOWEVER, IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO USHER DOWN THE
60KT-70KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ THAT WILL BE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW END SEVERE THREAT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT FLOOD RISK. PWATS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL REACH 1.40-1.60" WHICH WOULD
CLIMATOLOGICALLY BE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR THE MAX FOR
NOVEMBER. CONSEQUENTLY, THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. FORTUNATELY, THE 1 TO 2+ INCHES
FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIMEFRAME
TO MITIGATE FLOODING. DRY SOILS SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE
FLOODING THREAT LOW. MINOR RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HOWEVER. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO AN END. OTHERWISE, MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND BLUSTERY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY RETURNING HIGHS TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S. WEDNESDAY, A
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST WHICH
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE (15 TO 25%) FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HOWEVER,
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
WILL BRING OUR FIRST BELOW NORMAL DAY OF HE MONTH WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE FIRST FREEZE SINCE 10/16 WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE 40S ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
CHALLENGING 24-HOUR AVIATION FORECAST AHEAD, WITH MULTIPLE
CONCERNS TO ADDRESS. AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION THIS
EVENING, ANTECEDENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE (WITH THIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF SUNDAY), MOST LIKELY IN THE 06Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. AS
THIS OCCURS, LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RAPIDLY FILL IN. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON EXACT TIMING, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SUB-VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING BY 06Z, WHILE OTHERS ARE CLOSER TO 12Z. FOR NOW,
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INCLUDED MVFR ONSET AROUND 09Z, WITH
CIGS ANTICIPATED TO GO BELOW 2000 FEET (>50 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR
A FEW HOURS SUNDAY MORNING (BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z, PRIMARILY).
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL (AROUND 20 PERCENT CHANCE) FOR SUB-VFR
VSBYS TO DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES AS WELL DURING THIS PERIOD.
DURING THE AFTERNOON, SOME IMPROVEMENT TO THE CLOUD BASES IS
EXPECTED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON TIMING AND JUST HOW MUCH
HIGHER THE CIGS CAN CLIMB. CONSENSUS INDICATES A PERIOD OF VFR
WILL OCCUR, BUT SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS LOW CLOUDS ALL AFTERNOON.
BOTTOM LINE IS SEVERAL TAF AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE LACK OF PREDICTABILITY OF THE
CATEGORY CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CMS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page