587
FXUS63 KEAX 170500
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1100 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW END SEVERE AND FLOOD RISK EXISTS ON MONDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY HOWEVER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- FIRST HARD FREEZE EXPECTED FOR SOME OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
THIS AFTERNOON THE AREA IS WEDGED BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AND, TO THE WEST AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WHICH ARE GUSTING TO 20-30MPH.
THE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ON THE 290K-300K SURFACE IS ALLOWING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE CWA OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIP NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA
BY TONIGHT. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
WILL SAG INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S BEHIND THE FRONT AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL ALSO ADVECT NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE LOW END
SEVERE CHANCE WILL EXIST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING
AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SHEAR WILL BE VERY
STRONG WILL THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED WITH EVEN THE MORE ROBUST MODELS ADVERTISING 200-300J/KG
OF MUCAPE. HOWEVER, IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH TO USHER DOWN THE
60KT-70KT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LLJ THAT WILL BE IMPINGING ON
THE AREA DURING THAT TIMEFRAME. CONSEQUENTLY, THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN ADDITION TO THE
LOW END SEVERE THREAT THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT FLOOD RISK. PWATS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL REACH 1.40-1.60" WHICH WOULD
CLIMATOLOGICALLY BE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND NEAR THE MAX FOR
NOVEMBER. CONSEQUENTLY, THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. FORTUNATELY, THE 1 TO 2+ INCHES
FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OUT OVER A LONG ENOUGH TIMEFRAME
TO MITIGATE FLOODING. DRY SOILS SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP THE
FLOODING THREAT LOW. MINOR RIVER FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
HOWEVER. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING
SHOWERS TO AN END. OTHERWISE, MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND BLUSTERY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH.
COLD AIR WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY RETURNING HIGHS TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 50S. WEDNESDAY, A
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST WHICH
WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE (15 TO 25%) FOR LIGHT SHOWERS HOWEVER,
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL GUST TO 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
WILL BRING OUR FIRST BELOW NORMAL DAY OF HE MONTH WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. STRONG CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE FIRST FREEZE SINCE 10/16 WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE 40S ON THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LOOK TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT PROVIDING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING
LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO NEAR 30. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR
50.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH
MULTIPLE CONCERNS TO ADDRESS. FIRST ISSUE IS DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
CLOUDS TONIGHT, WITH A DECK AROUND 4-5 KFT ALREADY DEVELOPING IN
NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON TIMING OF SUB-VFR CIGS (ANYWHERE FROM 06Z
TO 12Z). MVFR CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER TO OR BELOW 2000 FEET
AFTER 12Z (>50 PERCENT CHANCE), PERHAPS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CIGS
MAY GRADUALLY LIFT ABOVE 2000 FEET DURING THE AFTERNOON (AROUND
A 50 PERCENT CHANCE), EVEN TO VFR (ESPECIALLY AT STJ), BEFORE
SLOWLY LOWERING AGAIN AFTER 00Z. MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z MONDAY; HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE, PRIMARILY AFTER 15Z SUNDAY. THERE IS
APPROXIMATELY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR VSBYS ON SUNDAY,
PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 20Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CMS
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