438
FXUS63 KEAX 191744
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TODAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SPRINKLES POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT/ EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, THOUGH MINIMAL STILL, COMES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA, IS QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD, AWAY FROM
THE REGION, EARLY THIS MORNING. WE'RE STILL SEEING GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 MPH IN NE MO SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
GOING THROUGH 10Z. HOWEVER, WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENING AND THE STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE
AREA, WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT, ANOTHER
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO. THIS WILL INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
8,000 FEET OR MORE OF DRY AIR BENEATH THIS CLOUD BASE. FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE MAY LEAD TO A FEW SPRINKLES, OR AT
WORST, A BRIEF BUT LIGHT RAIN SHOWER. AT THIS TIME, I THINK IT'S
MORE LIKELY WE STAY DRY SO HAVE ONLY RAISED POPS TO AROUND 10
PERCENT, WHICH KEEPS ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. ENSEMBLE PLOTS OF PROBABILITY OF 0.01" OR MORE OF
PRECIPITATION SHOW ZERO OR NEAR ZERO PROBABILITIES SO FEEL
KEEPING MENTION OUT FOR NOW REPRESENTS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS LOOK A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S. NORMAL HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY ARE IN THE LOW 50S.
A BRIEF WARMUP IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH BROAD RIDGING NOTED AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THAT WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IF FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT/ EARLY MONDAY, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES IN THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE CURRENT
FORECAST SHOWS DRY WEATHER MONDAY, BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IN OUR EAST WITH PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST
0.01" REMAINING BELOW 10%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SKIES
WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH
WILL BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THAT CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS OF 20-22KTS BETWEEN 18Z-00Z TODAY THEN
RAMP BACK UP TOMORROW INCREASING 22-28KTS BETWEEN 14Z-18Z AND
THEN INCREASING AFTER THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD FOR WED AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-32KTS. FOR NOW INDICATING THE INCREASE IN
WINDS FOR ALL TAF SITES FOR TOMORROW.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...MAK
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